> As impressive as this is, it is below analyst consensus, and the stock is down 5% afterhours :-(
This happens every time. Apple exceeds their own guidance; grows at a rate faster than nearly anyone else in the Fortune 500, and yet still fall short of the (insane) analyst guesses (predictions would be unsuitable).
I believe Horace Dediu did an article some time ago on amateur vs professional analysts and their track records against Apple's earnings calls. I can't seem to find the link but the degree at which some were off (with regularity) would be concerning if I were paying them for the advice.
I remember that as well -- bloggers got it right, analysts got it wrong. This morning I read "somewhere on the internet" that bloggers were predicting ~$10 while analysts where predicting ~$12. If I didn't just imagine that, this would remarkable in that even the bloggers overestimated.
The experts are generally over-conservative for a reason. The tldr reason is that they get fired for losing people's money so absolute accuracy (where misses are 50% high and 50% low) is not their incentive.
This happens every time. Apple exceeds their own guidance; grows at a rate faster than nearly anyone else in the Fortune 500, and yet still fall short of the (insane) analyst guesses (predictions would be unsuitable).
I believe Horace Dediu did an article some time ago on amateur vs professional analysts and their track records against Apple's earnings calls. I can't seem to find the link but the degree at which some were off (with regularity) would be concerning if I were paying them for the advice.