On: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

[barbegal]

I guess the probability of impact won't reach the >50% level until a few months before impact due to variations in earth's orbit and by that point the ability to do anything about it is limited.

[pfdietz → barbegal]

> due to variations in earth's orbit

I don't see how this could possibly be correct. Earth's orbit is very precisely known.

[hermitcrab → barbegal]

I think the uncertainties are down to not precisely knowing:

-the size of the object

-the orbit of the object

-the velocity of the object

-effect of outgassing and solar wind on the object (as mentioned in the top comment)

Rather than uncertainties in the earth's orbit.