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A quarter of Russia's economic exports are still not fully sanctioned, and more yet are under threat from unmanned surface vessels that have (so far) respected the civilian designation of their tankers and freighters. Donald Trump could walk away the from Ukraine table entirely, but it would only push Putin closer to the proverbial red button.

China is facing the butt-end of a 30 year population crisis with a replacement rate below 0.5 in some provinces and has a subprime mortgage crisis that threatens to make 2008 look like a fairytale. They disproportionately rely on imports that cannot be sustained during a conflict and stockpiles that will not last their population even a month.

I'm sure both of them are optimistic too, but you overestimate America's influence if you think Trump is capable of saving them from the consequence of their own devices.




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