> The “violent and disruptive” student is also a child with a right to an education. And for what it’s worth, usually a child in crisis. For school staff, your role as an adult is to teach the child to participate in society with whatever limited influence you have. As a parent or classmate, of course, you have no reason to give a shit about some asshole kid, but the teacher has to.
This is where I wholeheartedly disagree with you. Education is not a right if you can't comply with simple rules. I'd also like to see where you're correlating "violent and disruptive" with a "child in crisis". I'm not saying it's not there, but I am saying I don't believe those two components are exclusive.
These games of "what if" and "what is" must be fun for some people - because they seem to be played quite often. Rules are rules, they can be cut and dry - even in this case. The excuses are played out, the fallback on so many "disorders" is rampant. Either society is essentially fucked, or people are abusing the exceptions. I do agree, there should be some exceptions, but those should be few and far between to avoid slipping through the cracks.
Finally, the implication that a teacher "has to" give a shit has got to be the worst idea Americans have embraced. No, they don't. If my kid was asshole in school - I would handle the situation and apologize. Parents who go at districts for not "giving a shit" about their kid when their kid has been taught there are no repercussions by their parents don't have a right to anything in my opinion.
The purpose for "blame" or "fault" is to know who to punish to best improve society. The "what if" and "what is" scenarios stem from treating "blame" as a mysterious entity that leads to punishment, and then pathological (pathos) appeals that no one is really to blame. It seems rather tautological that society should adopt rules for blame that improves society, not rules that make people feel good inside.
- The kid's behavior isn't their fault. They might have a medical condition or a home situation causing them to act this way. It's tempting to write kids like this off, but we shouldn't punish kids for their parents' failings.
- No matter what, this represents a problem we have to solve. Either family can solve it at home, educators can solve it at school, or some LEO can solve it in the carceral system, but you burn more money and suffer worse outcomes the further down the pipeline you solve it (not unlike bugs in software engineering).
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I have a hot take that school is so frustrating because it's one of the very few things in the US money and status don't readily fix. Your household income might be $250k a year, but your kid's playing kickball with... people who make less, and there's really nothing anyone can do about it. The US isn't good at these kinds of "let's make society as a whole healthier so we avoid the worst outcomes" type problems, preferring to use those bad outcomes to motivate people to not be poor/lazy/unlucky.
Unfortunately the resources required to create some kind of middle tier education are truly bonkers (it's also de facto racist: 30% of Black kids and 20% of Hispanic kids are impoverished, so if you're saying "poor kids with all their problems not welcome here" you're kind of also saying Black/Hispanic kids with all their problems not welcome here--which also doesn't super work because of de facto segregation, so you're also saying "no middle tier schools here"). There are around 70m kids in the US. Let's take the top 2/3 (they're in households making > 199% of the poverty line) and assume ideal class size of 12. That's $229,000,000,000 a year just in salary (current median teacher salary is $58,950), which is more than 2/3 the current DoE budget, plus you'd have to dramatically increase salary and benefits if you wanted to hire that many new teachers anyway.
But, yeah overall my point is it's really hard to appreciate the scale of the problem both like, logically (can it really cost this much money?), emotionally (my kid got hit with a chair today), and culturally (I honestly thought making a quarter of a million dollars a year ensured my kid would never be hit by a chair in school; who do I see about this). But, it really is just the case we are going have to spend money like crazy and hire a shitload of professional educators. It might seem expensive, but you'll pay 10x if kids slide to the end of the pipeline--to say nothing of the moral cost.
In neighborhoods with better school districts, home prices and rents are higher in proportion to the demand people have for better schools, creating de facto segregation based on income, and by your logic, by race too.
What do you mean by "fault"? My concept of "fault" is whoever I'm going to punish to make society better. (More precisely, assume everyone has some policy `p_i` for actions they take. If a certain action `a` is bad for society, they get punished proportionally according to `KL(a, p_i)`, i.e. they are that much at fault.)
If their home circumstances are forcing them to act this way, then too bad for them! That is part of them and they should be blamed until you can fix the root cause.
Expecting children to be responsible for their own actions to this degree is unrealistic, any policy built on that expectation will be ineffective at best and likely harmful, and thus anyone advocating for it is at best asking us to waste resources and at worst asking us to harm kids.
You've got over 20 posts in this thread, many of them putting the blame on children with no evidence that this would be helpful (probably because it wouldn't be). You've yet to contribute good ideas or substantial new information to our discussion. Your behavior is making our group worse, and ironically if we were to follow your advice here we'd have to throw you out.
I can tell you're passionate about, but frustrated by this issue. My advice is to take a breath and if you're really interested, do some reading and get involved. There are successful education systems out there (everyone references Finland); things aren't hopeless.
> You've yet to contribute good ideas or substantial new information to our discussion. Your behavior is making our group worse, and ironically if we were to follow your advice here we'd have to throw you out.
Do you really believe this? I flagged your comment, because I'm worried that you are trying to convince people by building an ethos (and tearing down others' ethos) instead of appealing to logic. Your writing is very good, but there isn't much substance to it. For example, you say
> Expecting children to be responsible for their own actions to this degree is unrealistic
but don't substantiate why it is unrealistic. I've found that when people disagree (in America) there are usually layers of rhetoric that have been built around the issue, so much so that it can be hard to dig down to the crux of the issue and actually resolve the disagreement. This is why I'm worried about how you're writing: it seems to be adding layers instead of removing them. (EDIT: Note, I don't think you are doing this intentionally.)
Now, I do think I have been adding to the discussion. For example:
- I proposed we raise salaries by 10x and fire everyone to balance the budget.
- I gave an anecdote showing that even top-tier public schools have anti-learning cultures.
- I've pointed out that the "for whom" is important when discussing what is good or bad.
I wanna start off by saying you're clearly a smart person and I'm not trying to run you out or anything. I'm--both deliberately and subconsciously--saltier post Trump v2 and I'm trying to work through it. A big part of me wants to litigate everything all the time, but I'm gonna avoid that here because I believe in the HN community and that wouldn't build and strengthen that community (imagine the breathing exercises it took to attain this level of clarity haha).
Instead I want to discuss your basic point: we should expel problem kids because it improves outcomes for non-problem kids. I don't want to come off as condescending but I DDG'd for "does expelling students improve outcomes" and literally nobody thinks that. Here's some stuff to read:
"evidence shows these tactics aren’t effective in changing a student’s conduct, and carry major long-term risks for their welfare. Students most affected tend to be those with higher and more complex needs, such as those with disabilities and mental health issues."
"The findings underscore that suspending students does little to reduce future misbehavior for the disciplined students or their peers, nor did it result in improved academic achievement for peers or perceptions of positive school climate." (emphasis mine)
"Suspensions do not reduce classroom disruptions, and often encourage them."
"Suspensions do not improve outcomes for students, whether suspended or not."
"Suspensions do not prevent, and may increase, the risk of school violence."
"Restorative justice focuses on reconciliation with victims, learning from misconduct, and repairing harm caused by student misconduct. Victim-offender mediation is a common restorative justice program. For one example, in Denver Public Schools, a successful school-based restorative justice program decreased expulsions by 82%, suspensions by 39%, and referrals to law enforcement by 15%."
"Black students in North Carolina are more than four times as likely to be suspended or expelled as white students. Research has found no evidence that the over-representation of Black students in school suspension rates is due to higher rates of misbehavior."
"In total, Washington students lost over 169,689 days of class time during 2015. When students are suspended or expelled, they cannot participate in class, are less likely to complete schoolwork, and are more likely to skip school."
TL;DR: suspending and expelling doesn't do what you think it does; instead it causes a lot of harm; other approaches are better.
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Alright, now for some soapboxing. Again, you're a smart person, so I earnestly want to know did you jump in this thread to push your wildly incorrect take before Googling, or have you drank some kind of anti-DoE anti-public-education anti-teacher kool-aid? I'm so deeply weary of arrogant STEM people assuming there are no smart people anywhere else--I just wrote a whole screed in that Paul Graham wokeness thread about this exact thing. Educators are smart! They run studies on how best to educate! They're so easy to find and read!
This is the kind of thing I'm thinking about when it comes to what improves and enriches a discussion. Giving people information they may not have, getting new information and making connections that aren't yet there, giving people grace. The moment we give in and just start trying to win the argument we've lost the whole thing--we have to enrich our mental model of the world together. Or more pointedly, I'm relying on you to help me enrich my mental model of the world, so I need you to call me out when I'm blathering on tilt (could maybe be doing that here) or I've got it wrong, or you know something I don't. If you're gonna be effective at that, you have to do the reading, you have to be self aware, and you have to have compassion. It is work, but people doing that work is how HN stays valuable.
Thanks for the very thoughtful response! I admit I also get salty, particularly when it comes to education. It feels so obvious things should be a specific way, but of course that may just be my STEM person arrogance :P.
So, what I'm mostly confused about is why expulsion wouldn't work. We know some schools are better than others. We know students in "gifted" classes do better than others, and if your references are correct even a regular student in a "gifted" class would soak up the positive climate and turn out better than in a regular class. This seems to imply that expelling enough students should make the school better. For an extreme example, you could have everyone take a test, expel the lowest 50% of marks to a lower-tier school, and the remaining students would have better marks. This comparison is a little unfair, because expulsion is usually reserved for disruptive behaviour, not poor marks, but you could similarly have every teacher compile a list of misbehaving students. When I hear that expulsion wouldn't fix the problem, it must be because they are not expelling enough people!
I'm also a little leery of drawing the same conclusions as the news articles you linked. It seems likely that suspension/expulsion does always work, there's just a causation between lots of students misbehaving in a school and more students being expelled in the school. For example, the second news article says
> The findings underscore that suspending students does little to reduce future misbehavior for the disciplined students or their peers, nor did it result in improved academic achievement for peers or perceptions of positive school climate.
which has a few paragraphs on peer spillover effects from out-of-school suspension vs. in-school suspension. They do find a 1-2% decrease in the peers achieving ELA/math credit with out-of-school suspension (20-30% for the suspended), but there are also 20,000 incidents of out-of-school suspension with a median length ~two weeks [Table A.4]. Their data comes from the NYCDOE which has just under a million students, which means their peers also being suspended could account for half of the decrease! Then there's the correlation between negative school climate, more grievous offences, and out-of-school suspension (re: Table A.4), and it seems to be a clear-cut case of Simpson's paradox.
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Alright, time for the spicier part of this comment.
> I just wrote a whole screed in that Paul Graham wokeness thread about this exact thing. Educators are smart! They run studies on how best to educate! They're so easy to find and read!
I don't think the so-called educators are being smart. I think the average wokist is smarter than the average MAGAt (by a lot), but most systems fall into the Goodhart trap. People who optimise for looking good rather than being good often bubble to the top. This is why I think many woke arguments lean heavily on emotional appeals. The callous or ignorant MAGAts that only care about the gas price ironically end up with a more meritocratic system, because results matter.
I didn't partcularly like Graham's essay either, but I do sympathise with the anti-woke sentiment almost entirely because I believe this Goodharting has devastated the education system. For example, a common refrain I found in the comment section and your linked articles was,
> Expelling the student is not a good solution. Think about how this will effect his life! And what if he's going through abuse? Is it even his fault?
The MAGAt mentality is "I don't care, show me the results". They find current schools lacking, but don't particularly care about why they're lacking which is where school choice/vouchers come in. You don't need to fix things if you can just let the market find something better. This is a rather callous/ignorant take, and you can do much better by caring to find where the current system went wrong. I suspect it's because wokists forgot why we assign moral blame.
I think the purpose of "blame" in society is to figure out who to punish/rehabilitate to make society better. Note that even if there is a confounding factor it does not excuse the blame. I believe I've already mentioned this to you: you assign moral blame based on KL(bad action, person's policy). Why? If someone puts a gun to your head, and tells you to rob a store, you are unlikely to repeat the action. Your policy is really only, "rob stores when I have a gun to my head". On the other hand, if you were abused as a child and turned out a kleptomaniac, you are extremely likely to repeat the offence.
Now, rehabilitation has to actually work. If someone is starving, it doesn't matter how many beatings you give them, they will still steal food. Positive rehabilitation is often better for society, because you don't need to spend a bunch of money on the justice system, and the rehabilitated criminal can hold a job and pay taxes. Punitive rehabilitation works by decreasing the cost of future crimes from similarly-minded people. Note that I'm being really careful to talk about what is good for society, not the criminal. After all, every individual except the criminal (and friends/family) gains more by asking for the good of society, not the individual.
This ties into wokism and education as so: the wokist gives the emotional appeal,
> Expelling the student is not a good solution. Think about how this will effect his life! And what if he's going through abuse? Is it even his fault?
and the proper response is,
> good for whom?
As I mentioned at the start of this comment, it is good for the top 50% of students to expel the bottom 50% to an alternative school. Should we? In reality, we have to work under money and (as you pointed out) pitchfork & torch constraints. My issue with emotional appeals is they bring out the pitchforks, for potentially no good reason.
For example, I went to middle school in a rather conservative city, but even there the gifted program was eliminated in the name of equity. High school graduation standards have dropped, again in the name of equity. And California briefly proposed not allowing 8th graders to take algebra (for equity's sake) until they received massive backlash.
I care much more about what is actually good for society than what looks good. I really don't see how it's good to be holding back our brightest students to the bottom quintile's pace, or allow disruptions from known troublemakers.
At this point I'm rather tired; I might continue writing this tomorrow, but I probably won't. I'll just end with what I wish the school system looked like:
1. A national placement exam for each grade (including Kindergarteners). Students get placed into schools and classrooms entirely from their rankings (within the local system). The top scorers are offered room and board at nationally-run schools.
2. Disruptive students get kicked to penitentiaries. I read elsewhere in this thread of a city with three tiers of schools: one for regular students, one for first-time expulsions, and a last for the chronically expelled. This is what I'm imagining.
3. The same people that write olympiad problems and run the summer camps are hired to create a new curriculum. Quite frankly, Common Core is a failure; you see a decline in AMC 10/12 scores and participants about eight years after it was introduced, i.e. just enough time for the students who learned from Common Core to be taking the exams.
4. Everyone is fired, and as many people as money there is are hired at $300–500k/yr (in total compensation) to teach. At $15k/yr per student (what the US currently spends), and 30 students to a class, this should be just doable.
> Thanks for the very thoughtful response! I admit I also get salty, particularly when it comes to education. It feels so obvious things should be a specific way, but of course that may just be my STEM person arrogance :P.
Thank you (also for indulging)! As an also-arrogant STEM person myself we can muddle through together haha.
> So, what I'm mostly confused about is why expulsion wouldn't work.
I think a number of dynamics are at play here:
- Schools don't usually reach for suspension/expulsion that quickly because they're weighing the impact of the problem kid's behavior on others vs. the impact of a suspension/expulsion on the kid, so their disruptive lingers.
- Some schools have zero tolerance policies that suspend/expel very quickly, but it turns out that creates a super weird climate (students defending themselves are also suspended/expelled, school staff feel pretty bad suspending/expelling all the time, you can't build relationships with problem kids which is deeply dehumanizing on both sides, etc.)
- Problem kids have a weird habit of just coming right back. A lot of us are envisioning a relatively rich school district with multiple nets to cordon off problem kids, bost districts have the one school, maybe if they're lucky there's an "alternative school" in the parking lot, which is a trailer that should only ever have 5 people in it, but it has 15. Maybe some people are advocating for some kind of super harsh zero-tolerance-expelled-forever pipeline, but let me introduce those advocates to the School-to-Prison Pipeline [0].
- Problem kids are still in your neighborhood, your kid is pretty likely to still see them outside of school, and that leads to more weird social dynamics.
But moreover, let's say that zero-tolerance-expel-immediately leads to better outcomes for kids and we have some way of totally segregating problem kids both in school and broader society. Those kids are still a problem for society that we'll have to deal with at some point. Today they're throwing stuff in class, tomorrow they're breaking the windows of your car or running drugs in your neighborhood. At that point in the School-to-Prison Pipeline, rehabilitating the person is extremely expensive.
> seems to be a clear-cut case of Simpson's paradox
Nah, definitely not. A commonly cited paper [1] has a pretty good table breaking down the effects of various classroom properties on outcomes. Reading it, you'll immediately get a great look at why private/charter school outcomes are so much better: they work pretty hard to cherry-pick kids that lead to better outcomes, thus exacerbating the School-to-Prison Pipeline issue by putting more pressure on public schools. Anyway, there's so much on this topic you're gonna have to switch your argument to explaining a conspiracy in educational research:
Blame essentially never works, and it's because people are the products of systems. You talk about Goodhart's Law; another dynamic is where we do things that feel good or confirm our understanding of the world despite poor outcomes. Harsh disciplinary policies are the poster child for this. I'm gonna assume here you're pretty naive to the criminal justice space (this is because anyone who knows anything about criminal justice understands blame essentially never works), so I strongly encourage you to interrogate your priors here and read up on deterrence, punishment, and so on.
> National placement test for each grade
This would really only measure socioeconomic status, like most (all?) standardized tests. You also get stuck in tracks, so if say your mom dies in 3rd grade, you do poorly on the test and get bumped down, you're probably bumped down forever. That's a bad outcome.
> Disruptive students get kicked to penitentiaries.
Not only are there completely valid reasons for students becoming disruptive (parental issues, injuries, mental health issues, etc), the expense of this is out of this world. Even in the cheapest state (Arkansas) spending-per-inmate is $23k/yr--the median is something like $60k. Your options here are dramatically increase taxes or create a truly horrific human rights disaster.
> The same people that write olympiad problems and run the summer camps are hired to create a new curriculum.
This doesn't work because different people learn in different ways. You need dedicated, educated, well-compensated, supported professionals applying state-of-the-art techniques and research to get the outcomes we want. Also when you talk about replacing Common Core with some new standard, you're still not escaping Goodhart's Law.
> Everyone is fired, and as many people as money there is are hired at $300–500k/yr (in total compensation) to teach [30 student classes].
30 student classes obviates any benefit you'd get from anything else. There are no systems with those class sizes that are achieving the outcomes we want. You also can't literally fire all teachers. The NEA or teacher tenure won't let you. Training and interviewing 2.333 million teachers (plus administrators) is a gargantuan undertaking. Who moves to the middle of nowhere in Arizona, or Mississippi? How will you find so many qualified people? That $15k/yr number you keep citing isn't all salary; we spend around $236b on ~4m teacher salaries, which yields ~600k teachers (at $400k/yr salary), so you still need to find $680b (which is more than the budget of Medicaid) for the remaining 1.7 million teachers. You also have to somehow survive the political fallout of firing hundreds of thousands of people, many of whom have families and various health issues.
> 30 student classes obviates any benefit you'd get from anything else. There are no systems with those class sizes that are achieving the outcomes we want.
I disagree? Universities have larger lectures, and students can move to lower classes if theirs moves too fast. I think your argument goes somewhat like:
| Assume each student randomly needs extra help some x% of the time. Then, the expected length until no needs help is (1-x%)^-n. Just to throw a number out there, assume ten students can move half as quick as one student. Then by the time you get to thirty students, you're moving 20% as fast as with ten students.
However, x% decreases with higher-salary teachers, and you can just move on without answering questions: "Ask me after class, we don't have time today." Finally, if you organize classes so similarly ranked students are together, the correlation in needing help increases, and the pace improves.
> You also can't literally fire all teachers. The NEA or teacher tenure won't let you.
Not with that attitude! Milei layed off 20% of his federal employees, and Musk 80% of Xitter. So, it is possible. They can protest, but I don't have sympathy for shitty teachers looking after their own interests.
> Training and interviewing 2.333 million teachers (plus administrators) is a gargantuan undertaking. Who moves to the middle of nowhere in Arizona, or Mississippi? How will you find so many qualified people?
I think the key is to steal employees ;). If you're offering double the salary, I think the local universities might lose a few professors. Also, as I mentioned, the university pyramid scheme is pumping out more PhDs than they know what to do with. There are also many universities shutting down as enrollment drops. Finally, interviewing 2 million teacher positions is a gargantuan undertaking, but each town only needs a few dozen. The federal government can create a teachers' job board for people to apply to, and let local towns do the hiring. Lots of doctors move to the middle of Nowhere, Mississippi, so I'm sure lots of teachers would too for a competitive salary.
> You also get stuck in tracks, so if say your mom dies in 3rd grade, you do poorly on the test and get bumped down, you're probably bumped down forever. That's a bad outcome.
Bad for whom? It's great for the kid who got bumped up. If you really want a better spot, you can study harder for the next test. No one is *stuck* in tracks. Do you know how I got good at math? I just solved thousands of math competition problems I found on AoPS.com. I would have improved faster if I had a coach/teacher to guide me, but the resources are out there if someone actually wants to hop tracks. It'll be harder than just never losing your spot, but that's no reason to give up.
> This [olympiad problem->curriculum writers] doesn't work because different people learn in different ways. You need dedicated, educated, well-compensated, supported professionals applying state-of-the-art techniques and research to get the outcomes we want. Also when you talk about replacing Common Core with some new standard, you're still not escaping Goodhart's Law.
I call bullshit. The SAT/ACT do not go high enough to distinguish the top 0.1% from the top 0.5%, and other (American/state) standardized exams are even worse, which means the so-called professionals literally do not have metrics that can capture that signal to tune their curriculae against. On the other hand, olympiad problem writers/camp counselors have a proven track record of doing exactly that. Here are two anecdotes:
1) In elementary school, my gifted class' teacher was complaining that her evaluations looked bad, because her students never showed improvement. It wasn't because they didn't improve, it's just because they stayed at 99%.
2) When Luke Robitaille got second in MATHCOUNTS in sixth grade, the next two years of exams became much harder, solely to make sure he wouldn't get a perfect score. His eighth grade year had the lowest top twelve cutoff in history, but at least there was a full spread at the top.
At the very least, we should agree that smarter students need an Uncommon Core curriculum.
> Today they're throwing stuff in class, tomorrow they're breaking the windows of your car or running drugs in your neighborhood. At that point in the School-to-Prison Pipeline, rehabilitating the person is extremely expensive.
In my other reply, the TLDR; is essentially, "it's the other way around". It's much more expensive to rehabilitate them in the classroom than in the prison system.
>> 30 student classes obviates any benefit you'd get from anything else. There are no systems with those class sizes that are achieving the outcomes we want.
> I disagree? Universities have larger lectures, and students can move to lower classes if theirs moves too fast. I think your argument goes somewhat like:
You're doing the thing again where you apply your expertise to a domain you're naive to. Google for class size and outcomes.
>> You also can't literally fire all teachers. The NEA or teacher tenure won't let you.
> Not with that attitude!
Contracts are contracts. Attitude has nothing to do with it.
> I think the key is to steal employees ;). If you're offering double the salary, I think the local universities might lose a few professors.
How do you deal with losing... let's just say 2m people from other high-value professions? Unemployment is at historic lows. You also haven't wrestled with finding ~$700b to pay for all of this. There's ~100,000 public schools in the US in ~13,000 school districts. You think you'll get good outcomes letting them all hire individually? Will you put caps on salary so smaller districts don't lose out?
You've honestly not thought through this at all. You're again walking onto an issue you're entirely ignorant of, and if you were in charge of it you'd thoroughly destroy it.
>> You also get stuck in tracks, so if say your mom dies in 3rd grade, you do poorly on the test and get bumped down, you're probably bumped down forever. That's a bad outcome.
> Bad for whom? It's great for the kid who got bumped up.
You're naive to the problems with standardized testing and trying to supplement with anecdata.
> [Weird takes on common core and standardized testing]
There may be a problem with the educational system not serving highly gifted students, but that's way further down the list than kids who graduate without basic reading and math skills. I'm not saying we can't walk and chew gum at the same time, but dealing with gifted students is a whole other kettle of fish (which judging by your anecdata I'm confident you've read nothing about).
>> Today they're throwing stuff in class, tomorrow they're breaking the windows of your car or running drugs in your neighborhood. At that point in the School-to-Prison Pipeline, rehabilitating the person is extremely expensive.
> In my other reply, the TLDR; is essentially, "it's the other way around". It's much more expensive to rehabilitate them in the classroom than in the prison system.
I'm gonna quote something from my response to Paul Graham's wokeness essay: "It's like someone's running an experiment on how many times you can be bafflingly wrong before people notice." I'm noticing.
There may be a problem with the educational system not serving highly gifted students, but that's way further down the list than kids who graduate without basic reading and math skills. I'm not saying we can't walk and chew gum at the same time, but dealing with gifted students is a whole other kettle of fish (which judging by your anecdata I'm confident you've read nothing about).
the answer is simple - these two groups should NEVER be in the same classrooms - NEVER. these two groups will soon approach being different species. The entire issue is that they ARE in the same classroom but shittiest programmer is not sharing an office with Googlers working on search algo - yet somehow this is acceptable in schools. I have to pay tens and tens of thousands of dollars every year to make sure my kid does not have to deal with that nonsense
> There may be a problem with the educational system not serving highly gifted students, but that's way further down the list than kids who graduate without basic reading and math skills.
My entire premise is it's way further up the list. I called you out originally for "adding layers instead of removing them." You won't even acknowledge my cruxes exist, in fact you "refuse to even continue considering it." It's like they say: insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result. Everyone you talk to from the other side is baffingly wrong, because you keep doing the same thing and expecting different results.
I think the school->prison pipeline is a real issue, but I think a poor quality of education is a much bigger deal because smart, educated people generate exponentially more wealth since the industrial revolution. If you want what is best for everyone, you would focus more resources on top-performing students rather than less! Sure, top-performing students would turn out better than mid-performing students—even with fewer resources—but that's a tautology and an emotional appeal. I think the tricky part is to make sure top students give back to society once they graduate, but that seems more of a cultural issue to solve. Boring students to death probably doesn't help, though.
Now, you brought up that national testing + placement would mostly reflect socio-economic status. I think this is concerning because it lead to in-groups reinforcing themselves, which naturally decreases motivation for future rich people to help the rest of society. However, we already have examples of placement tests, and this isn't what happens! NYC has several "specialized" schools, including one of the best high schools in the nation, Stuyvesant. Admissions to Stuyvesant are entirely based on your rank on the SHSAT, yet 48% of their students are "economically disadvantaged" according to USNews. I'm not entirely sure what that means, but I would expect lower or lower-middle class. This data also matches up with my intuitions: although intelligence is heritable (through genes or upbringing), there are exponentially more "economically disadvantaged" people than rich people, so even though rich kids are overrepresented, they are still outnumbered by poor(er) kids.
Also, keep in mind that rich people will always be able to pay for private schools or tutors if they find public education lacking. So, you are really only depriving poor students of any possibility of a good education by lumping everyone together, which is worse for reinforcing classism. As you mentioned, charter/private school outcomes are so much better because they work pretty hard to cherry-pick kids that lead to better oucomes. Why not give everyone that opportunity?
That's a little facetious, because not everyone has that opportunity. Some people are just not genetically predisposed towards exams, or they're being abused at home, or they have to work after school to buy food for their younger siblings. But, it doesn't really matter why someone cannot do/be better if we're unable to fix the why. Until it can be fixed, the problem is just a part of them and they'll be punished for it. This isn't very sympathetic, but it's the game-theoretical optimal approach for getting to the Pareto frontier.
You mention that blame/punishment essentially never works, which is probably because humans are not perfectly rational agents. Sure. I've definitely seen this when I play Risk online. You have to use different strategies when people are irrational/prone to mistakes, e.g. with novices it's usually good to make a big stack and wait for everyone else to noob-slam, while with masters it's better to work with the othe rplayers to slowly choke out the rest. Optimal strategies may be less tolerant to mistakes, and a common mistake humans make is, "this person hurt me, so I will hurt them even more," without considering why they were hurt. A common theme I saw in school->prison pipeline studies is that youth get disaffected with society/the justice system, so they end up committing more crimes. If people really are being irrational, in such a way that punishment will not work, you really only have three options:
1. Force them into rationality.
2. Rehabilitate them through positive reinforcement.
3. Eliminate them from society, e.g. sending them to Louisiana/Australia, prisons/executions, or closed communities.
I'd argue that you should take whichever option is best for society, i.e. costs it the least. Why?
a) Societies cannot be comprised of mostly (weighting by utility) negative-externality people for very long.
b) Everyone else is better off by eliminating such people, thus they are motivated to do so in whichever way is cheapest.
If it were cheaper to just execute all criminals, or commit horrific human rights disasters to make prisons cheap to run, that's what society should do. Historically, that's what societies have done. Nowadays, it probably isn't cheaper; even if the average inmate spends just as much time in prison as out of it, they are probably close to net-positive to society. The cheapest solution probably is rehabilitation for most people except the unfixable, and even there, life in prison is probably cheaper than execution.
So, I think I agree with you about rehabilitation, but probably not for the reasons you cite. I think "people being products of systems" is a rather naive take; if people were products of stable systems (in the physics sense), punishment actually would work. Conservatives have a bias towards everything being a stable system [which is true; you are exponentially more likely to end up in more stable (determined by transition probabilities) trembling-hand/thermodynamic equilibria], which is probably why they're all pro-punishment and such. Note that rehabilitation can still be cheaper, but at least punishment would work. It's only when you have unstable systems that punishment might not work at all. It's a little worrying to think that America's system might be unstable right now, but the race riots and past two elections kind of show it is. More accurately, it's too easy to transition out of its current maximum for punishment to really dissuade future malcontents.
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Alright, let's return to education. I think we're in agreement that:
I) The school->prison pipeline is real.
II) Imprisonment is expensive, probably moreso than rehabilitation.
As I put at the top, we probably disagree that:
III) This cost is more than that of a poor education system.
I think rehabilitation through the education system is far more expensive. Here's just a back-of-the-napkin calculation. Suppose that all inmates are directly a result of the school->prison pipeline. It costs ~$70bn/yr to incarcerate them, but let's also assume we're missing out on 2 million people * $65k/yr = $130bn from jobs they could be working. This amounts to about $200bn/yr in costs to society.
Now, the number of billionaires increases by about 36 each year, and the average billionaire has $7bn. If a better education were to double the number of billionaires produced each year, this would entirely offset the cost. Of course, billionaires are usually better at capturing value than producing it, but at least some educated STEM guy below them is producing the value. I think this is entirely doable by expelling more students. In fact, I think the justice system will only start costing more than the wealth generated from better education (through the top students) once the pitchforks and torches come out.
Similarly, we should be able to do a cost-benefit analysis on teacher salaries. In reality, the most efficient use of money is to pour it into the top schools (and have entrance exams), but the metrics don't look as good. Most legislators care about the quintiles, not the top 0.1%, plus the wokists hate inequity. And, even bottom schools need much better teachers than are currently around. That's why I want to raise all salaries to $300-500k/yr.
You mentioned that only $236bn is spent on ~4m teachers, but there actually is another $600bn going elsewhere. If you want an average class size of 20 students, you only need ~2.5m teachers, so it should be possible if you strip everything else to the bare-bones. My elementary school class was taught in a portable, and I think that's better than having a shitty teacher.
You've done a lot of thinking here, but if you did 80% of the thinking and 20% of the reading you'd reach better conclusions. There are systems that spend more per student than the US does, more % of GDP than the US does, they have lower classroom sizes than the US, they have better systems for gifted students, their students spend more time in class, they pay teachers professional salaries, they have more state of the art instructional programs, etc. etc. etc. None are trending towards the outcomes you're suggesting; in particular the EU isn't producing more billionaires (this is a product of income and wealth inequality, not educational system efficacy).
> I'd argue that you should take whichever option is best for society, i.e. costs it the least. Why?
> a) Societies cannot be comprised of mostly (weighting by utility) negative-externality people for very long.
> b) Everyone else is better off by eliminating such people, thus they are motivated to do so in whichever way is cheapest.
I can't imagine what you might mean by negative-externality people, but whatever it might be let me inform you there are lots of countries/governments/societies in the world that aren't doing so hot, and they've been doing not so hot for quite some time. Is this some kind of quasi-rational-market hypothesis for societies? Nowhere is this true. Why do people stay in abusive relationships? Why did Black people continue to live in States that practiced segregation? Why do people still eat unhealthy food, or smoke, or drink?
> If it were cheaper to just execute all criminals, or commit horrific human rights disasters to make prisons cheap to run, that's what society should do. Historically, that's what societies have done.
I think relying on the actions of governments who knew almost nothing (Earth is flat, what is air, diseases are punishment from God, the sun revolves around Earth) is a bankrupt argument. Governments have almost never been data-driven. Reducing the rubric of how governments/societies should act to "do whatever's cheaper" is... so wrong I don't even really know where to start. How do you justify investments? How do you justify things like entering WWII or The Manhattan Project? How do you know what's cheaper or will result in the most gains ahead of time? This can't be a real argument. Are we about to go the entire history of how governments work? I refuse. Do more reading.
> I think "people being products of systems" is a rather naive take; if people were products of stable systems (in the physics sense), punishment actually would work.
Punishment doesn't work. Deterrence is a myth, and recidivism rates are off the charts. Again you're naive to the criminal justice system. If we don't think better systems/environments lead to better outcomes and worse systems/environments lead to worse outcomes, why are we trying to improve the US educational system at all? A kid's educational attainment is preordained right? Even if you think this is a straw man, it does us no good to consider "some kids just suck" when building an educational system, again because of the School-to-Prison Pipeline where bad outcomes are so lopsided.
> Similarly, we should be able to do a cost-benefit analysis on teacher salaries. In reality, the most efficient use of money is to pour it into the top schools (and have entrance exams), but the metrics don't look as good.
Your argument relies on the prospect of these super students increasing GDP so much we offset the cost of shunting tons of students into the School-to-Prison pipeline. Not only is there no evidence for this, it's a deeply immoral system. I refuse to even continue considering it.
To be pointed about it, I have people in my family who are special needs. I myself was disruptive in school because of life circumstance. When you advocate literally for imprisoning me and members of my family, at some point I have to recognize we're fighting. I've reached that point now.
> I can't imagine what you might mean by negative-externality people
Google is your friend. Essentially, in a counterfactual universe where they never existed, the world would be better off. If you have more negative externalities than positive externalities, your society is draining wealth, and will eventually disappear.
> Punishment doesn't work. Deterrence is a myth, and recidivism rates are off the charts.
We've already gone over this. Go rehabilitate, I don't care. Just rehabilitate people in a way so they aren't actively commiting crimes against education.
> Your argument relies on the prospect of these super students increasing GDP so much we offset the cost of shunting tons of students into the School-to-Prison pipeline. Not only is there no evidence for this, it's a deeply immoral system. I refuse to even continue considering it.
You are trying to coerce one group into sacrifcing enormously for another group, and you say my system is immoral? If sacrifices have to be made (they don't), why do you get to choose who bleeds on the altar?
Also, there is plenty evidence that super students do offset the cost. For example, North Korea's system puts disproportionally more money into their top students, and they usually rank higher on the International Mathematics Olympiad than every European country except Russia. The benefit is mostly for their defense: they really needed nuclear weapons, and they couldn't get them without investing in their best students. They might not even exist as a country today if they didn't do so. What could be more beneficial to their society?
> There are systems that spend more per student than the US does, more % of GDP than the US does, they have lower classroom sizes than the US, they have better systems for gifted students, their students spend more time in class, they pay teachers professional salaries, they have more state of the art instructional programs, etc. etc. etc. None are trending towards the outcomes you're suggesting; in particular the EU isn't producing more billionaires
Look, everyone acknowledges Europe has a stagnation problem, America is better for startups, and the USD being the principal reserve currency makes Americans richer. You cannot directly compare countries like that. I know you're smart enough to recognize that, so I'm astonished you wrote this down.
Ideally, you could just randomly assign two policies, and see which works better. But in the real world, pretty much all studies in education are surveys, and it's hard to account for differences in space (countries/culture/socioeconomic status). Even differences in time (when new policies are introduced) have confounders, but less so. If you look at those studies, you'll find that new policies that throw money at smaller class sizes or higher-quality teachers lead to better educational outcomes. It's uncontroversial to say that better educational outcomes lead to better salaries, and higher wealth generation. (BTW, I'm not using wealth to mean USD, I mean quality-of-life. The USD is just a convenient proxy. Not sure if that was clear earlier.)
Tracking is more controversial. However, the one study that did just randomly assign tracking to 120 first grade classes found it benefited everyone:
Most other studies use standardized exams (e.g. the PISA), and let me remind you, those are not difficult enough to see improvement for the upper percentiles! You flippantly dismissed it, but it's a huge deal. If your national assessment were the AMC 10/12 the bottom 50% would all score zero points (really 37.5, but that's irrelevant), and tracking would look like a resounding success if the top few thousand showed improvement.
> To be pointed about it, I have people in my family who are special needs. I myself was disruptive in school because of life circumstance. When you advocate literally for imprisoning me and members of my family, at some point I have to recognize we're fighting. I've reached that point now.
This upsets me. Have you, this whole time, only been arguing for your in-group? Every time you said, "what is best for society," did you really just mean what is best for the people you care about? I, too, want what is best for my in-group, but I've tried to talk about how ranking/expulsions/etc. would increase wealth generation, and improve everyone's quality of life.
Quite frankly, your in-group needs my in-group, not the other way around. If we really are just trying to capture value for our in-groups, people in mine could just give up on public schools and go home-school their kids. I don't think this is optimal for either of our in-groups, but you have to acknowledge that if you want certain people to go to public school, you can't be defecting against those very people! If we really do have a conflict between two in-groups, why do you feel entitled to anything from the other side?
You've mentioned the school->prison pipeline, and how a lack of education brings out the pitchforks and torches. This is entirely true on the other side as well. As you saw in the comment section, a lot of smart people literally feel like school was prison to them. They were bullied, abused, had no freedom, etc. We've both acknowledged that bad students may become disaffected with school and society (if we don't rehabilitate properly), but only I've seemed to recognize that good students will too. Perhaps the difference is, disaffected bad students become violent, while disaffected good students become quantitative traders. Well, guess what? If your entitlement comes through a threat of violence, the correct response is to eliminate that threat.
Maybe you are alright with threatening violence, but I'd rather we not fight. And we don't have to. Society holds itself together through mutually beneficial deals (and a plethora of convenient lies). The minimum I'm asking for is for public schools to be mutually beneficial. This is why, although I think it is best for society to put extra resources into their top stuents, I am okay spending only equal resources.
This is where I wholeheartedly disagree with you. Education is not a right if you can't comply with simple rules. I'd also like to see where you're correlating "violent and disruptive" with a "child in crisis". I'm not saying it's not there, but I am saying I don't believe those two components are exclusive.
These games of "what if" and "what is" must be fun for some people - because they seem to be played quite often. Rules are rules, they can be cut and dry - even in this case. The excuses are played out, the fallback on so many "disorders" is rampant. Either society is essentially fucked, or people are abusing the exceptions. I do agree, there should be some exceptions, but those should be few and far between to avoid slipping through the cracks.
Finally, the implication that a teacher "has to" give a shit has got to be the worst idea Americans have embraced. No, they don't. If my kid was asshole in school - I would handle the situation and apologize. Parents who go at districts for not "giving a shit" about their kid when their kid has been taught there are no repercussions by their parents don't have a right to anything in my opinion.