At the moment before encountering the Muan Murder Wall, there were 181 souls alive, healthy, and uninjured aboard Jeju Air Flight 2216.
At the moment after encountering the Muan Murder Wall, there were 2 souls alive, one severely injured, and 179 corpses, most mutilated beyond all recognition.
Multiple things had clearly gone wrong with the flight, and we're going to have to wait for results of investigations to determine what crew and/or ATC actions and decisions contributed. But the principle lethal mechanism was impact with the immovable object of the Muan Murder Wall, and the ensuing instantaneous deceleration, disintegration, and conflagration of the aircraft and the souls aboard.
Even with multiple contributing factors, had the Muan Murder Wall not existed at that location, the aircraft would have overrun the runway and quite possibly airport perimeter, but would have slowed far more gradually and likely encountered structures less substantial than the Muan Murder Wall.
Sampling from that we find that such accidents often result in no or few fatalities, particularly on landing. E.g.:
- Sriwijaya Air Flight 062 (2008): 130 souls, 124 passengers, 6 crew, 1 fatality, 23 injuries, 130 survivors. The aircraft struck a house, 3 of the injured were occupants. The sole fatality occurred some time after the incident. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sriwijaya_Air_Flight_062>
- China Eastern Airlines Flight 5398 (1993): 80 souls, 71 passengers, 9 crew, 2 fatalities, 10 injuries, 78 survivors. The aircraft experienced a tailstrike during a go-around attempt in heavy rain / high winds, broke in three, and came to rest in a pond. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Eastern_Airlines_Flight_...>
- American Airlines Flight 331 (2009): 154 souls, 148 passengers, 6 crew, 0 fatalities, 85 injuries, 154 survivors. Aircraft landed > 4,000 feet from the threshold with a tailwind in inclement weather. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Airlines_Flight_331>
- TAM Airlines Flight 3054 (2007): 187 occupants, 181 passengers, 6 crew, 187 fatalities, 0 survivors. The exception in my (random) sample, this aircraft had a nonfunctional thrust reverser on the right engine. Lack of grooving on runway, heavy rain, hydroplaning, asymmetric thrust, and a large warehouse directly beyond the runway perimeter all contributed to the fatalities.
I've omitted one link I'd selected, Air France Flight 007 (1962) as that incident occurred on takeoff, not landing, where fuel load and flight profile greatly alter conditions and likely outcome, and isn't directly comparable. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_007>.
If anyone cares to examine the 50 other listings on the Wikipedia category page, I suspect a similar patter of largely survivable overrun incidents prevails. The conspicuous lack of Muan Murder Walls seems significant.
From a road directly outside the airport, looking toward the ILS structure, we see that had the wall itself not been there the plane would have struck a cinderblock wall as it continued on. This would have damaged the aircraft, but less so than a solid concrete wall:
Switching directions we can look to the south along the path the aircraft would likely have followed. The terrain is flat and clear, save for further navigation light structures which would likely have given way readily to the aircraft:
Approximately 300m or so from the end of the runway are a few rather unwisely-located pensions and hotels. Those would likely contribute to ground casualties if impacted.
Another few metres past those, mudlands and bay waters, which would be more emenable to a survivable overrun.
I'm going through more of the Wikipedia category entries.
AA 1420 (1999) is notable for similarities with Jeju 2216:
The aircraft continued past the end of the runway, traveling another 800 feet (240 m; 270 yd), and striking a security fence and an ILS localizer array. The aircraft then collided with a structure built to support the approach lights for Runway 22L, which extended out into the Arkansas River. Such structures are usually frangible, designed to shear off on impact, but because the approach lights were located on the unstable river bank, they were firmly anchored. The collision with the sturdy structure crushed the airplane's nose, and destroyed the left side of the plane's fuselage, from the cockpit back to the first two rows of coach seating. The impact broke the aircraft apart into large sections, which came to a rest short of the river bank.
Captain Buschmann and 8 of the plane's 139 passengers were immediately killed in the crash; another two passengers died in the hospital in the weeks that followed.
Even though this aircraft also hit an ILS structure, fatalities were far lower than those of Jeju 2216, likely as AA 1420 had decelerated significantly both on the runway (despite severely limited wheel and air brakes) and its subsequent 240 cross-terrain slide.
> The calculated ground trajectory indicated that the flight 1420 airplane
departed runway 4R at about 97 knots and impacted the runway 22L approach lighting system support structure at about 83 knots.
97 knots is 112 mph. Somewhere below another commenter said Jeju Air 2216 left the runway at about 160 knots (184 mph). It's a pretty big difference.
I'm no expert, but my guess is that the main distinguishing factor of all the accidents where most/all survived is not the lack of killer berms, but the speed of the plane when it left the runway.
1420 airplane departed runway 4R at about 97 knots and impacted the runway 22L approach lighting system support structure at about 83 knots.
That's a more explicit restatement of my own "likely as AA 1420 had decelerated significantly both on the runway ... and its subsequent 240 cross-terrain slide."
Jeju 2216's lack of braking authority may have resulted from a dual engine outage, possibly a consequence of pilot error, noted here:
Absent the ILS structure, the aircraft would have had ~300-500m to decelerate across largely forgiving terrain before possibly encountering fairly light structures, and ultimately bay waters, detailed here:
As I've noted already, we're waiting on investigation conclusions to understand further, though it's entertaining to speculate, and IMO somewhat more productive to look at similar events and history.
At the moment after encountering the Muan Murder Wall, there were 2 souls alive, one severely injured, and 179 corpses, most mutilated beyond all recognition.
Multiple things had clearly gone wrong with the flight, and we're going to have to wait for results of investigations to determine what crew and/or ATC actions and decisions contributed. But the principle lethal mechanism was impact with the immovable object of the Muan Murder Wall, and the ensuing instantaneous deceleration, disintegration, and conflagration of the aircraft and the souls aboard.
Even with multiple contributing factors, had the Muan Murder Wall not existed at that location, the aircraft would have overrun the runway and quite possibly airport perimeter, but would have slowed far more gradually and likely encountered structures less substantial than the Muan Murder Wall.
Wikipedia has a category page listing 55 runway overruns: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Airliner_accidents_an...>
Sampling from that we find that such accidents often result in no or few fatalities, particularly on landing. E.g.:
- Sriwijaya Air Flight 062 (2008): 130 souls, 124 passengers, 6 crew, 1 fatality, 23 injuries, 130 survivors. The aircraft struck a house, 3 of the injured were occupants. The sole fatality occurred some time after the incident. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sriwijaya_Air_Flight_062>
- China Eastern Airlines Flight 5398 (1993): 80 souls, 71 passengers, 9 crew, 2 fatalities, 10 injuries, 78 survivors. The aircraft experienced a tailstrike during a go-around attempt in heavy rain / high winds, broke in three, and came to rest in a pond. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Eastern_Airlines_Flight_...>
- Philippine Airlines Flight 137 (1998): 130 souls, 124 passengers, 6 crew, 0 fatalities, 44 injuries, 130 survivors. Ground casualties: 3 dead, 25 injured, as aircraft ploughed through a residential area. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_Airlines_Flight_137>
- American Airlines Flight 331 (2009): 154 souls, 148 passengers, 6 crew, 0 fatalities, 85 injuries, 154 survivors. Aircraft landed > 4,000 feet from the threshold with a tailwind in inclement weather. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Airlines_Flight_331>
- TAM Airlines Flight 3054 (2007): 187 occupants, 181 passengers, 6 crew, 187 fatalities, 0 survivors. The exception in my (random) sample, this aircraft had a nonfunctional thrust reverser on the right engine. Lack of grooving on runway, heavy rain, hydroplaning, asymmetric thrust, and a large warehouse directly beyond the runway perimeter all contributed to the fatalities.
I've omitted one link I'd selected, Air France Flight 007 (1962) as that incident occurred on takeoff, not landing, where fuel load and flight profile greatly alter conditions and likely outcome, and isn't directly comparable. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_007>.
If anyone cares to examine the 50 other listings on the Wikipedia category page, I suspect a similar patter of largely survivable overrun incidents prevails. The conspicuous lack of Muan Murder Walls seems significant.