On: Things we learned about LLMs in 2024

[throwpoaster]

157 billion implies about a 1% chance at dominating a 1.5 trillion market. Seems reasonable.

[asqueella → throwpoaster]

10%, no?

[throwpoaster → asqueella]

No, there’s a risk term I’m skipping over.

[airstrike → throwpoaster]

that's 10% and who's to say that market is worth 1.5 trillion to begin with

[throwpoaster → airstrike]

There’s a risk term I’m not including and the comparable is the size of the American economy ($27 trillion).

So take the entire economy and ask the question: what does AI not impact? Net that out and assume there’s pricing efficiencies, then build in a risk buffer.

1.5t to 15t seems right.

[cloverich → airstrike]

Market cap of apple, google, facebook.

[tantalor → cloverich]

Market cap and market size are totally different measures