Ukraine is receiving outdated, underequiped and limited inventory. I won't be surprised if there are some direct negotiations with Russia about what is allowed and what is not.
There is line after which Putin will launch nukes, destruction of major foundational infra totally could be it:
1. Putin will want to suppress Nato from further steps.
2. Population will likely demand this as an act of revenge.
3. There will be some self defense justification.
It won't be massive attack, first nuke to be launched on Ukrainian infra, and second on some EU military base, after which NATO will stop and suck it up(likely after first nuke) if Trump won't decide to escalate which is very unlikely.
China will likely support this, to legalize their own similar potential actions
> A tactical nuke on NATO would likely have the automated chain reaction of all out war.
how do you see this? Trump likely will decide to not engage, and EU is weak disorganized, and don't have teeth for major escalation against Russia's nukes.
"China will likely support this, to legalize their own similar potential actions"
Not at all, because chinas legal angle with Taiwan is the opposite - the holy territorial integrity. Which is why they critiziced russia for invading officially and don't give really support. The support they do give, is still doing lucrative buisness with russia. That is in their own interest and they like NATO attention split. But the legal situation they don't like as russia is clearly violating territorial integrity - which is their argument for annexing Taiwan.
And Trump is an old man and most of the nuclear response is pretty hardcoded into the military institutions. Meaning, so many people will tell Trump he will be seen as weak if he does not react, that he will push the red buttons.
> Not at all, because chinas legal angle with Taiwan is the opposite
we are discussing hypothetical situation of Russia nuking military bases if western missiles produce large damage on Russian core infra. China will likely also want to nuke bases in Japan, S.Korea and Philippines as act of self defense, regardless if Taiwan will be the reason or something else.
> And Trump is an old man and most of the nuclear response is pretty hardcoded into the military institutions. Meaning, so many people will tell Trump he will be seen as weak if he does not react, that he will push the red buttons.
I don't believe this. He and his appointments likely will say Russia is Europe's problems, lets better build wall on Mexico's border instead of mutually annihilate each other.
The US and its allies would destroy Russia’s troops and equipment in Ukraine – as well as sink its Black Sea fleet – if the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, uses nuclear weapons in the country, former CIA director and retired four-star army general David Petraeus warned on Sunday.
Petraeus said that he had not spoken to national security adviser Jake Sullivan on the likely US response to nuclear escalation from Russia, which administration officials have said has been repeatedly communicated to Moscow.
He told ABC News: “Just to give you a hypothetical, we would respond by leading a Nato – a collective – effort that would take out every Russian conventional force that we can see and identify on the battlefield in Ukraine and also in Crimea and every ship in the Black Sea.”
NATO can do several levels of conventional response that is at once completely in accordance with international law, more destructive to Russia than tactical nukes will be to Ukraine, and not threatening proliferation.
And Russia will be nuking shit left and right each time in response? What do you think this will achieve?
China will invade them at that point :) After their conventional army is destroyed in Ukraine and they are tossing nukes around - why not?
If your only card is "I'll commit extended suicide" - you're done.
NATO can destroy russia conventionally in a response to a nuclear attack.
You can't sell a first strike nuclear attack to the rest of the world as "justified".
And a tactical nuke won't change anything significantly military or economically-wise. It would be a political statement (and a completely braindead one).
> NATO can destroy russia conventionally in a response to a nuclear attack.
they cannot destroy Russia because Russia will hit by even more nukes
> You can't sell a first strike nuclear attack to the rest of the world as "justified".
They sold invasion to Ukraine to the world to some extend, they still are in UN security council, plenty of countries trading with them. If they mass hit by western missiles, it will be even easier to sell.
> And a tactical nuke won't change anything significantly military or economically-wise.
it will make NATO countries to reconsider their actions.
It's all bullshit. Out of all the things Putin won't do - nuking NATO is the first.