Russia annoying both Finland and Estonia may be unwise. Look at the geography.
There's only 20km of water between Helsinki and Tallinn.
If those countries act together they can cut off sea access to St. Petersburg.
Or just slow things down by inspecting every ship for cable-cutting capability.
NATO has already stepped up patrols in the Baltic Sea.[1]
Right now, Russia doesn't have all that much military capability near St. Petersburg.[2]
Some units are off at the Ukraine war. The Baltic Fleet is weaker than ever.
There's a "Free Ingria" movement that wants to make all of Leningrad Oblast a separate country. It's not going anywhere without outside support. It might get some.
Every large ship with an anchor has cable cutting capability, at least in shallow waters. They just drop anchor near the cable (locations of which are clearly marked on regular nautical charts) and then run the ship's engine to drag the anchor across the cable until it breaks.
In terms of potential hybrid warfare targets, Kaliningrad looks soft. Many of the residents have little loyalty to Russia. A partial blockade combined with some sabotage and support of separatist organizations could accomplish a lot.
NATO is now patrolling that area, probably looking for that. Finland joined NATO in 2023, after seeing what Russia was doing in Ukraine.
It's a narrow corridor to patrol. Small boats watching large ships can tell if an anchor is run out. An ordinary fish-finder sonar should be able to tell if a ship is dragging something. Finland has many small coast guard vessels, and a long history of pushing back against border incursions from Russia.
The most recent incursion was [1]. "Since the beginning of August 2023, more than 1,300 third-country nationals have arrived in Finland from Russia without a visa. According to the authorities, it was clear that foreign authorities or other actors were facilitating instrumentalised migration. This phenomenon and the risk of its escalation posed a serious threat to national security and public order in Finland."
Migrants who escaped Afghanistan, etc. and ended up in Russia are apparently being given a hard choice - join the army and fight in Ukraine, or leave Russia.
So Finland closed the land border with Russia completely. Russia objected. Finland did not give in.
Finland started building a border fence on the Russian border, with surveillance gear, back in 2023.[2]
> Look at the geography. There's only 20km of water between Helsinki and Tallinn. If those countries act together they can cut off sea access to St. Petersburg.
Closer to 90km. If it was 20, all ships to/from St Petersburg would have to pass through Estonian/Finnish territorial waters and we wouldn’t have questions around jurisdiction.
it's 38km from Naissaar to first Finnish islands, and the international waters there are wider than they should thanks to all the wars that were fought over it.
