So your claim for optimism here is that something today that took ~10^22 floating point operations (based on an estimate earlier in the thread) to execute will be running on phones in 25 years? Phones which are currently running at O(10^12) flops. That means ten orders of magnitudes of improvement for that to run in a reasonable amount of time? It's a similar scale up in going from ENIAC (500 flops) to a modern desktop (5-10 teraflops).
That sounds reasonable to me because the compute cost for this level of reasoning performance won’t stay at 10^22 and phones won’t stay at 10^12. This reasoning breakthrough is about 3 months old.
By a factor of 10,000,000,000? (that's the ten orders of magnitude needed, since the physical side is out). Algorithmic improvements will make this 10 billion times cheaper?
