I’d say the same thing except about 25-30 years ago and definitely not 15, which suggests to me that both of us suffer from observer bias and likely there’s always been a real mix of programmers who were really into it and others who were only after a job. Perhaps the proportion of uninterested programmers has increased though.
A lot of people heard there is money in programming so they did the bare minimum and landed a job.
The managers who hired them were not complete idiots, mind you. They knew what they were getting but they are playing their own games: they need the bigger head-count, they want to hire their cousin to oversee these sub-par programmers, they want to be seen as professional when they inevitably have to ask for external consulting when their underlings crap the bed on a regular basis, etc.
But it's mostly power play, I found, almost on a sexual kink level. A lot of people in power out there will hire you if you are meek and can't stand up for yourself. Really weird.
Having hired more than a few people, I'll suggest a much simpler reason. These programmers might just do the bare minimum, but that bare minimum is enough to accomplish the job we need them to do, and we can stop interviewing and get back to work.
It probably follows the booms and busts of the industry. Boom times encourage people to enter the industry whether they are interested or not. During a bust you will only get people who are interested in the subject for its own sake.