> See also the famous example of how a predictions market for when public figures will die is just an assassination market with extra steps.
Why not just write it so that non-natural causes of death don't pay out? More generally, make it so you can't wager on illegal events / outcomes, or ones where a crime materially affected the outcome. Anyway, if someone bets big on a public figure being assassinated, and then that public figure gets assassinated, it would seem like a good place to start investigating would be to look at the people who made a lot of money from that bet.
There were 2-3 assassination attempts on Trump this year.
It would be valuable to incentive people to share knowledge of assassination vulnerability, to guide security efforts. Banning that defeats the purpose.
Why not just write it so that non-natural causes of death don't pay out? More generally, make it so you can't wager on illegal events / outcomes, or ones where a crime materially affected the outcome. Anyway, if someone bets big on a public figure being assassinated, and then that public figure gets assassinated, it would seem like a good place to start investigating would be to look at the people who made a lot of money from that bet.