I flagged that as implication #2. They would have to keep the market participants in the dark about it, and find a confidential use for the private forecast.
If polymarket had an internal 80-20 model based on super-forecasters, they wouldn't disclose that, but they might have paying customers for it outside the prediction market itself. For example, stock traders might pay for the private model.
If I could pay the NYSE for real time trading info on the buy/sell limits from warren buffet and other whales, I would.
If polymarket had an internal 80-20 model based on super-forecasters, they wouldn't disclose that, but they might have paying customers for it outside the prediction market itself. For example, stock traders might pay for the private model.
If I could pay the NYSE for real time trading info on the buy/sell limits from warren buffet and other whales, I would.