This article is one of the most infuriating pieces of shallow thinking I've read for a while now. It seems to acknowledge that there might be a real demographic problem in a couple decades, but since there's no clear evidence, the conclusion is just to not worry so much about it?
> low-fertility countries now produce around nine-tenths of the world’s GDP
And that can also be interpreted in how they're redirecting effort that would be spent in raising the next generating, to pump up their current economy. It's basically putting the entire society in structural debt.
Like the modern environmental crisis, the demographic one is also avoidable, but only if we act in a well thought out manner. At least here there should be more incentive for each state to start first, since you'll reap a lot more of your own work later on.
I agree; it's not as serious as the alarmist language used by the media would suggest. Consider Japan, the posterchild of poor demographics and fertility collapse, has seen its population decline just very slightly, and this is on top of having among the most restrictive immigration policy of any developed country. https://greyenlightenment.com/2024/10/04/there-is-no-fertili...
The underlying math of population growth and replacement allows for a wide range of fertility rates that predicts only a very slight long-term decrease of population. There is more than enough time to reverse such a decline if policy makers were so inclined. And this is also offset by increasing economic productivity, longer lifespans, more per-capita wealth, and so on. Fewer people are necessary when each person can contribute and consume more.
> low-fertility countries now produce around nine-tenths of the world’s GDP
And that can also be interpreted in how they're redirecting effort that would be spent in raising the next generating, to pump up their current economy. It's basically putting the entire society in structural debt.
Like the modern environmental crisis, the demographic one is also avoidable, but only if we act in a well thought out manner. At least here there should be more incentive for each state to start first, since you'll reap a lot more of your own work later on.
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