The world is vastly more complex than say the world of 1945, so almost certainly there are now likely several dozens to several hundreds of ‘epicycles’ that are in fact true and necessary for full understanding.
Edit: Now the pentagon doesn’t contain the entire complexity of mankind within it… but it’s probably not that far off.
Hindsight bias.
States, like us human beings, are not nor ever have been completely in control of themselves and exist out of different "parts" making the whole.
Also, when expected outcomes don't align with perceived results, it's usually best but not very human to doubt yourself.
You never have all the information you need for making the best decision or opinion.
"Dark Budgets" vested in firms like Dwave via firms like inQtel, steer research about quantum computing. Whoever has Shor/Grovers going first, has a advantage equitable to winning the AGI race... That too can win wars.
Nothing is simple and perceived simpleness is on the clock, for everyone.
It's not inherently different, how we deal with it is.
Drawing conclusions from linear seemingly causal events is nuts considering that most start calculating from the future desired outcome to the present.Someone may do something stupid on purpose in order to gain later.
Adversaries may do the same, the math can quickly spiral beyond human/individual comprehension. For a fact at least for a part of whoever may be involved in some way or another. Complexity is not random, and we can choose our initial conditions to our liking, causing $outcome. We now have entire DC's crunching numbers, not just a bunch of nerds at Bletchley Park. Their ability to calculate and manipulate odds for something to happen far exceeds ours, that's different now. Yet we read snippets from people speculating, drawing conclusions based on, what exactly ?
The world is vastly more complex than say the world of 1945, so almost certainly there are now likely several dozens to several hundreds of ‘epicycles’ that are in fact true and necessary for full understanding.
Edit: Now the pentagon doesn’t contain the entire complexity of mankind within it… but it’s probably not that far off.