> if AI gets even just 2 orders of magnitude better over the next two years You ...

arach · 2024-10-24T02:34:55 1729737295

yes, thanks for pointing out the assumption here. I'm not sure how to quantify AI improvements and tbh not really up to speed on quantifiable rate of improvement from 4 to 4o to o1

100 times better seems to me in line with the bet that's justifying $250B per annum in Cap Ex (just among hyperscalers) but curious how you might project a few years out?

Having said that, my use of 100x better here applies to 100x more effective at navigating use cases not in training set, for example, as opposed to doing things that are 100x more awesome or doing them 100x more efficiently (though seemingly costs, context window and token per unit of electricity seem to continue to improve quickly)

Eisenstein · 2024-10-24T04:55:27 1729745727

I would think that such an increase in AI capability would basically be AGI...

Just to give a few comparisons, the following things are two orders of magnitude apart:

1. The force felt by a mosquito landing on your arm and getting punched by Mike Tyson in his prime

2. A firecracker exploding and a stick of dynamite exploding

3. The heat from a candle and the heat from a blowtorch

4. The sound from a whisper and the sound from jet engine