On: Intelsat 33e breaks up in geostationary orbit

[worstspotgain]

An accidental strike is unlikely. Either a massive malfunction, or maybe ASAT [1]. ASAT is always going to be a possibility from now on simply because the target might prefer to deny getting hit.

[1] https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-03/news/us-warns-new-ru...

[panzagl → worstspotgain]

I think we'd know if the Russians detonated a nuke in orbit.

[worstspotgain → panzagl]

That's not the only kind of weapon.

[panzagl → worstspotgain]

So you're saying an untraceable ASAT attack is more likely than a micrometeor impact?

[worstspotgain → panzagl]

Lots of real estate between "might prefer to deny it" and "untraceable." On HN at least, you should assume the best possible interpretation instead of putting words into mouths.

And yes, malfunction is the most likely cause, distantly followed by attack. Micrometeoroid isn't very likely IMO, considering Intelsat-29e failed similarly. Unless maybe if they painted a red target on it and the meteor god has a sense of humor.