To whit: OpenAI was until quite recently investigating having TSMC build a dedicated semiconductor fab to produce OpenAI chips [1]:
(Translated from Chinese)
> According to industry insiders, OpenAI originally actively negotiated with TSMC to build a dedicated wafer factory. However, after evaluating the development benefits, it shelved the plan to build a dedicated wafer factory. Strategically, OpenAI sought cooperation with American companies such as Broadcom and Marvell for its own ASIC chips. Development, among which OpenAI is expected to become Broadcom's top four customers.
Even if OpenAI doesn't build its own fab -- a wise move, if you ask me -- the investment required to develop an ASIC on the very latest node is eye watering. Most people - even people in tech - just don't have a good understanding of how
"out there" semiconductor manufacturing has become. It's basically a dark art at this point.
For instance, TSMC themselves [2] don't even know at this point whether the A16 node chosen by OpenAI will require using the forthcoming High NA lithography machines from ASML. The High NA machines cost nearly twice as much as the already exceptional Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) machines do. At close to $400M each, this is simply eye watering.
I'm sure some gurus here on HN have a more up to date idea of the picture around A16, but the fundamental news is this: If OpenAI doesn't think scaling will be needed to get to AGI, then why would they be considering spending many billions on the latest semiconductor tech?
(Translated from Chinese) > According to industry insiders, OpenAI originally actively negotiated with TSMC to build a dedicated wafer factory. However, after evaluating the development benefits, it shelved the plan to build a dedicated wafer factory. Strategically, OpenAI sought cooperation with American companies such as Broadcom and Marvell for its own ASIC chips. Development, among which OpenAI is expected to become Broadcom's top four customers.
[1] https://money.udn.com/money/story/5612/8200070 (Chinese)
Even if OpenAI doesn't build its own fab -- a wise move, if you ask me -- the investment required to develop an ASIC on the very latest node is eye watering. Most people - even people in tech - just don't have a good understanding of how "out there" semiconductor manufacturing has become. It's basically a dark art at this point.
For instance, TSMC themselves [2] don't even know at this point whether the A16 node chosen by OpenAI will require using the forthcoming High NA lithography machines from ASML. The High NA machines cost nearly twice as much as the already exceptional Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) machines do. At close to $400M each, this is simply eye watering.
I'm sure some gurus here on HN have a more up to date idea of the picture around A16, but the fundamental news is this: If OpenAI doesn't think scaling will be needed to get to AGI, then why would they be considering spending many billions on the latest semiconductor tech?
Citations: [1] https://www.phonearena.com/news/apple-paid-twice-as-much-for... [2] https://www.asiabusinessoutlook.com/news/tsmc-to-mass-produc...