> The big bet that they all made is to assume relatively stable geopolitics
It's not just geopolitics. China required partnering with local companies and sharing IP. Even if they were geopolitically friendly, Western countries set up to build their own Chinese competition from scratch in exchange for lower labour costs, believing that either they could out-innovate China at design (even when Americans no longer understand how their own products get made), or that they'd be retired by the time it did matter.
It's not just geopolitics. China required partnering with local companies and sharing IP. Even if they were geopolitically friendly, Western countries set up to build their own Chinese competition from scratch in exchange for lower labour costs, believing that either they could out-innovate China at design (even when Americans no longer understand how their own products get made), or that they'd be retired by the time it did matter.