On: Hezbollah pager explosions kill several people in ...

[s1artibartfast]

Do you think Lebanon will escalate by capturing prisoners? I agree that that could be an escalation given the context and history. That said, I don't know what a path to peace with Hezbollah looks like. It's hard to imagine Israel tolerating it imperfect ceasefire while Hezbollah continues to arm, given how that worked out with Hamas

I think that netanyahu would be very happy to see a de-escalation on the northern border and it would be a big win for his cabinet.

[talldayo → s1artibartfast]

> Do you think Lebanon will escalate by capturing prisoners?

They sure don't seem motivated to stop, if Israel's pre-planned response is still fratricide: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannibal_Directive

[s1artibartfast → talldayo]

if anything, Israel seems overly concerned with prisoner recovery, given the current situation in gaza and the Lebanon war

[ceejayoz → s1artibartfast]

> Do you think Lebanon will escalate by capturing prisoners?

It's certainly part of the playbook, if they can manage some captures. Soft targets seem a lot more likely, though.

> That said, I don't know what a path to peace with Hezbollah looks like.

This conflict is creating the next generation of orphaned rage-filled extremists. Peace is a very, very distant goal at this point.

> I think that netanyahu would be very happy to see a de-escalation on the northern border and it would be a big win for his cabinet.

I very much disagree. Netanyahu is on a treadmill he can't ever let stop; ending the emergency means having to properly face his long-delayed criminal proceedings (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu).