OK, I'll try - not as a rigorous argument, but not as a strawman, either.
Events shape cultures. You can find cultural remnants of past events that impacted a group decades later (especially traumatic events).
And, cultures shape events, because cultures shape the people that cause (at least some of) the events. And cultures shape peoples' response to the events.
So when you see a pattern that looks fairly similar across centuries, then you have at least some ground for suspecting that there is a stable system there - that events keep happening that shape the culture in a consistent way, and the culture keeps shaping events in ways that will give rise to the same kinds of events happening.
I wouldn't go as far as "deterministic". I don't think that much involving humans is ever truly deterministic. But there does seem to be a pattern of history, if not repeating itself, at least rhyming.
Events shape cultures. You can find cultural remnants of past events that impacted a group decades later (especially traumatic events).
And, cultures shape events, because cultures shape the people that cause (at least some of) the events. And cultures shape peoples' response to the events.
So when you see a pattern that looks fairly similar across centuries, then you have at least some ground for suspecting that there is a stable system there - that events keep happening that shape the culture in a consistent way, and the culture keeps shaping events in ways that will give rise to the same kinds of events happening.
I wouldn't go as far as "deterministic". I don't think that much involving humans is ever truly deterministic. But there does seem to be a pattern of history, if not repeating itself, at least rhyming.