Hurricanes (as with climate) are complex systems and are based on a number of distinct conditions.
Among the driving factors is the total thermal energy available, largely as sea-surface temperature. And looking at current conditions across the northern Atlantic from Cape Verde to the Yucatan Peninsula, temps are well above average. Nullschool's Earth weather visualiser is a good way to view current and historical information:
From the site's "about" page: "ocean surface temperatures and anomaly from daily average (1981-2011) updated daily".
We have had a lull in Atlantic / Gulf storms since Ernesto (8--20 August), but we've also seen the earliest Cat-5 storm, and some of the fastest storm development, of the storms that have developed to date. In particular, storms can go from a weak depression to a major hurricane within 24--48 hours (as with Beryl: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Berylhttps://en.wiki...>). A later storm, Debby, stalled and progressed slowly over the Southeastern US, dumping prodigious amounts of rain (>500mm / >20in) triggering flooding (from precipitation rather than storm surge), and causing $2 billion in damages.
My understanding is that other factors can lead to tropical waves not developing into storms, most especially wind shear. I don't know if that's been a factor since late July, though that's been the core of most discussions about possible further development of the season.
And the official season runs through 30 November, typically peaking in early September. So we've got quite a ways to go.
Rapidly-developing storms with access to a great deal of thermal energy and tropical moisture increase the likelihood of major storms developing rapidly with little warning and severe impacts. That's no joke to deal with.
Among the driving factors is the total thermal energy available, largely as sea-surface temperature. And looking at current conditions across the northern Atlantic from Cape Verde to the Yucatan Peninsula, temps are well above average. Nullschool's Earth weather visualiser is a good way to view current and historical information:
<https://earth.nullschool.net/#2024/08/23/0000Z/ocean/surface...>
From the site's "about" page: "ocean surface temperatures and anomaly from daily average (1981-2011) updated daily".
We have had a lull in Atlantic / Gulf storms since Ernesto (8--20 August), but we've also seen the earliest Cat-5 storm, and some of the fastest storm development, of the storms that have developed to date. In particular, storms can go from a weak depression to a major hurricane within 24--48 hours (as with Beryl: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Berylhttps://en.wiki...>). A later storm, Debby, stalled and progressed slowly over the Southeastern US, dumping prodigious amounts of rain (>500mm / >20in) triggering flooding (from precipitation rather than storm surge), and causing $2 billion in damages.
My understanding is that other factors can lead to tropical waves not developing into storms, most especially wind shear. I don't know if that's been a factor since late July, though that's been the core of most discussions about possible further development of the season.
And the official season runs through 30 November, typically peaking in early September. So we've got quite a ways to go.
Rapidly-developing storms with access to a great deal of thermal energy and tropical moisture increase the likelihood of major storms developing rapidly with little warning and severe impacts. That's no joke to deal with.