My read on the hypothetical described in the first paragraph is that a) an indefinite stalemate with Ukraine would defer this possibility to a time world circumstances will be different, b) trajectory of US industrial manufacturing expansion following CHIPS act will relegate Taiwan to medium importance and once in that position the US will not risk all-out-war to protect it, c) North Korea matters most if the former scenarios are in play, relations with China will still be cold without a war but they would not be keen to sanction NK aggression owing to potential response
