If someone doesn't want to use IPv6, then what they're effectively suggesting is that we create a new protocol, and role it out to every smartphone, tablet, laptop, desktop, server, (Wifi) router/CPE, ISP router, SMB router, enterprise switches, and IoT device. Meanwhile we've already effectively run out of IPv4 addresses (e.g., ARIN and RIPE pools are zero) and are just shuffling about whatever is left in auctions.
> There's one thing I forgot to mention in that big long story above: somewhere in that whole chain of events, we completely stopped using bus networks. Ethernet is not actually a bus anymore. It just pretends to be a bus. Basically, we couldn't get ethernet's famous CSMA/CD to keep working as speeds increased, so we went back to the good old star topology.
> If someone doesn't want to use IPv6, then what they're effectively suggesting is that we create a new protocol, and role it out to every smartphone, tablet, laptop, desktop, server, (Wifi) router/CPE, ISP router, SMB router, enterprise switches, and IoT device. Meanwhile we've already effectively run out of IPv4 addresses (e.g., ARIN and RIPE pools are zero) and are just shuffling about whatever is left in auctions.
Although I've heard some ideas for a IPv4.1 that suffer from the obvious problem, I think the far more common view is rather that v4 is fine and its only problem is solved by NAT. Which I agree isn't actually a long term solution, but let's try to meet the stronger argument.
There's no way that would work in a no-IPv6 / IPv4-only world. Comcast ran out of 10/8 address space to manage their cable modems: how would that work without IPv6?
Even on smaller scales, without IPv6, supporting IPv4 with CG-NAT can get really expensive, real fast:
> We learned a very expensive lesson. 71% of the IPv4 traffic we were supporting was from ROKU devices. 9% coming from DishNetwork & DirectTV satellite tuners, 11% from HomeSecurity cameras and systems, and remaining 9% we replaced extremely outdated Point of Sale(POS) equipment. So we cut ROKU some slack three years ago by spending a little over $300k just to support their devices.
How would connectivity for 10^9 people work with only IPv4? See also China. Each of those countries is 2^30 people, plus add another 2^30 for the continent of Africa, and you're already over 2^31. IPv4 is 2^32 addresses.
https://apenwarr.ca/log/20170810