On: OpenAI may lose $5B this year and may run out of c...

[_jab]

I wonder about OpenAI's moat. Thanks to advances in hardware and rapidly improving open-source ML frameworks, it's getting significantly easier and cheaper to replicate what they've built over time. That's not the case for most startups: it's not really any easier to build an Uber clone today than it was ten years ago.

OpenAI depends on spending vast amounts of money to stay a year or two ahead of the competition. I'm doubting whether that's a justified tradeoff.

[guardiang → _jab]

Open source just caught up to GPT-4, which was released over a year ago. You don't think all of the advances in hardware don't also play into their hands? They have GPT-5 in the pipeline and are likely hard at work planning and prepping for GPT-6. A year or two beyond the competition, at this point, is their moat.

[tivert → guardiang]

> A year or two beyond the competition, at this point, is their moat.

That doesn't seem like much of a moat.

> They have GPT-5 in the pipeline and are likely hard at work planning and prepping for GPT-6.

I wouldn't be surprised if there's an element of diminishing returns here. The improvement from GPT4 to GPT5 is likely much less than GPT3 to GTP4.

[renegade-otter → tivert]

And they are going to run into source data problems. The internet is not producing that much more quality content, and now they have a problem with AI-generated clickbait.