So on the earnings call, that just completed...Musk just invented a new word play.
Now FSD is currently on "Supervised Self Driving" and they will be transitioning to...."Unsupervised Self Driving".
When asked when the first actual Robo Taxi voyage will occur, answered that will depend on when they will achieve "Unsupervised Self Driving"...His new word for FSD.
In other words,the Robo Taxi previously announced and postponed for September, does not exist as a viable product...
He also went on making another absurd statement. That would expect this "Unsupervised Self Driving" technology, to be approved in all countries by regulators until the end of the year. And no, no analyst asked how does he expect something it's not available yet to be approved, ( presumably after product release ) by regulators in multiple countries, within presumably 2 to 3 months...
Just in Germany, they would take 12 months to find the correct paper form....
I mean, I think at this point that sort of statement isn't _for_ the analysts; they know very well it's not going to happen. It's for the retail meme-stock-y investors.
As you say, even if they had something which _actually worked_, today, getting it cleared by regulators in all countries, or realistically in _any_ country, by end of year is simply not going to happen; it's just obvious nonsense.
Jack Barker: "Pied Piper's product is its stock. Whatever makes the value of the stock goes up is what we are going to make. Maybe sometime in the future, we can change the world and perform miracles and all of that stuff. I hope we do. But like I told you before, I am not going to mortgage the present for that."
- A lot of Tesla competitors have caught up (outside of self driving) and energized their sections of the EV market. I see way more Korean EVs on the road than ever before for example.
- EV growth is slowing due to various factors, but so are cars in general due to economic issues.
- Elon opened up the NACS as a gambit for not having to change their own chargers. NACS won, but a lot of prospective EV buyers are waiting for NACS native vehicles from other manufacturers.
- Elon has really alienated massive chunks of the EV demographic. Identity politics are inherently tumultuous.
As a launch batch Model Y owner myself, I’m definitely looking elsewhere whenever this car needs replacing. I want more comfort and just a better driving experience (turn signal stalks, an instrument cluster etc in the more accessible models) and the only reason I went with Tesla is the charging network is unmatched in NA.
I do not have a very rosy outlook on Tesla as long as Elon remains in charge. He got it where it is, but he’s increasingly a liability.
> based on the recent pay-package vote, they strongly disagree.
Indeed, it's almost as if everyone knows the fundamentals are weak, it's 90% a meme stock, and they're afraid that taking away the magic part-time CEO will end the meme.
- There aren't compelling new models to sell to existing customers. If you bought (not leased) a Tesla, there isn't much reason why you might want to upgrade. How long as the current Model S design been around? Even though there is an updated Model 3, it's really hard to tell from the exterior design. The changes were subtle.
- The interiors are still less "fancy" than other cars in their peer group. And with more cars in that premium EV peer group, interior design is important.
- The constant price changes really messed with resale values. When Tesla is about to have a bad quarter, they drop prices substantially. This in effect makes all current used Teslas less valuable. This drops their resale value, which in turn (a) makes current owners angry, and (b) makes it so that current owners have less money on a trade-in to buy a new car.
In my mind, the company is still learning how to be a car company. They've shown that they can make cars (pretty high quality). But they haven't really shown that they can sell multiple cars to a customer.
The third point is also why I don’t trust Elon’s leadership anymore. It’s too impetuous these days. This is true of how he runs Twitter as well as Tesla.
The first two points are also very true and emblematic of a company following their impulsive leaders whims.
The biggest refreshes any of their models have gotten since launch are either very negatively received (yoke without steer by wire, removal of stalks) or have been cost cutting measures.
Highland Model 3s barely moved the needle for anyone who isn’t an active Tesla observer. All their resources have gone into the cybertruck and robotaxi.
I disagree though that they’re learning to be a car company. I think they have shown they can sell multiple models. However the problem is they have poor leadership. They’re now stuck in the same rut as many of the Japanese brands are when they hyper focused on certain aspects of their business.
Elon is hyper focused on cutting costs and refreshing their models goes against that. Whatever mid life crisis has entrenched this immature side of him is reflected in the company. It needs to mature itself into a company that can deliver across the board in the way they used to innovate and I don’t think they can do that with him at the helm any longer.
> There aren't compelling new models to sell to existing customers.
Environmentally that's kinda the best. Selling boring models in the millions is better than VW's 20 different models with 100 options. Same model means easier repairs, more accessories, better secondary market.
> Finally, who is buying them competitors? I.e. Hyundai in US sells same number of EVs per year that Tesla sells per week
That might be more compelling if the US were the only market for electric cars; in fact it is the smallest and least mature of the big three, after China and Europe. And the trend in the US market definitely seems to be moving more towards the European market; a bunch of manufacturers with 10-20% share. This is what you'd _expect_ as the market matures; the idea that one manufacturer would be able to maintain a functional monopoly on something like this was always a little fanciful.
Stock down 4% after hours. Still have a ways to go with that 63 PE (if Tesla is a car company, Ford's is 14, if Tesla is an AI-adjacent software company, meta's is 28)
I think I have a real comment in there somewhere, but yeah, it came out pretty snarky.
I think the point I might have been getting at was this might be the result of unfulfilled FSD/robotaxi hype. Tesla started as a cool car company, but definitely a "car" company, competing with Ford, GM, Stellantis, etc.
Over time, more of the story about the company and its products was the robotaxi narrarive. By the end of 2020, the stock price had rocketed up partially for macro reasons, but largely for expectations of sales of FSD/robotaxi capabilities. Or at least that's my perception. Tesla fans I talked to all repeated the robotaxi story... "any day now, FSD is going to let me rent out my car as a taxi while I work. I'll actually make money from owning my Tesla!" It's 2024 and the last I heard was the robotaxi demo is again delayed and while FSD is running over fewer people than in the past, it still may be a ways away. From that perspective, robotaxi in 2020 was hype.
In other words, TLSA's stock price was inflated by hype in 2020, not completely unlike tech securities in the late 90s.
A 45% hit in per-share profit is not surprising given the vaporware nature of the cybertruck in the early 2020s and robotaxi/FSD capabilities.
But my main point is it is disappointing to see a once-innovative firm resorting to what feels like DotCom era hype.
No need to delete! but your reply is an excellent example of the 'rebound' theory*: the explanations that users post in response to a moderation reply are often the the thoughtful, substantive comment they should have posted in the first place. If only we had a way to jump past the first two steps of that cycle...
Tesla Q2 2024 Update [pdf] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41050278 - July 2024 (68 comments)