You can go do the rabbit hole of risk scenarios, but you still end up with a list that will look something like (made-up) 100 days of supplies will get me through 80% of the list, and 250 days will get me through 95% of it.
If you want to go down that rabbit hole, start with studying Katrina. Has almost every variation played out within one extensively documented event. Hunker vs leave, severe acute damage (MS) vs persistent 'lessor' flooding (NOLA), figuring out how long you need to evac, and when evac turns into short/medium term relocation or even permanent move.
Yea it's local and not Armageddon, but it provides the framework for how to think about these things, and how relying on faulty assumptions gets you in trouble.
But the real answer to your Q is that you'll start by prepping for 10-day events, then 100-day events, then maybe 250-day events, and you'll start to be able to fill in the gaps of your knowledge yourself. No matter what the risks.
Along the lines of: What good is 250 days of food without X? Where x might be water, fuel, meds, or 'lessor' needs like internet, work/job, social events, etc.
Or what good is 250 days of food if I have to abandon 210 days of that supply to evac?
Those are the types of questions that people answer differently, and you won't start filling in the gaps for yourself until you start small and build from there.
If you want to go down that rabbit hole, start with studying Katrina. Has almost every variation played out within one extensively documented event. Hunker vs leave, severe acute damage (MS) vs persistent 'lessor' flooding (NOLA), figuring out how long you need to evac, and when evac turns into short/medium term relocation or even permanent move.
Yea it's local and not Armageddon, but it provides the framework for how to think about these things, and how relying on faulty assumptions gets you in trouble.
But the real answer to your Q is that you'll start by prepping for 10-day events, then 100-day events, then maybe 250-day events, and you'll start to be able to fill in the gaps of your knowledge yourself. No matter what the risks.
Along the lines of: What good is 250 days of food without X? Where x might be water, fuel, meds, or 'lessor' needs like internet, work/job, social events, etc.
Or what good is 250 days of food if I have to abandon 210 days of that supply to evac?
Those are the types of questions that people answer differently, and you won't start filling in the gaps for yourself until you start small and build from there.