There’s credible rumors China is planning to make moves on Taiwan 2028ish.
I feel bad for the Taiwanese, similar to how I felt about Hong Kong. I was hoping we’d offer Hong Kong citizens aslyum (you’d make great US citizens!) but I realize we’d probably also get a few… dissidents caught in our net with that program. I even debated marrying a Hong Kong girl for citizenship but couldn’t find any online, also what a weird offer to make, no one took me up on it (couldn’t find where Hong Kong people posted to advertise even).
Anyhow, I do support strengthening our military. I was younger and thought our military budget was silly but after more reading and more nuance in my worldview, I realize our military is source of consistency - a necessary evil that’s helped to avoid larger wars. Still wish we had better healthcare though.
Personally I think, if PRC was really going to engage in a significant military escalation of the cross-straits conflict, a PRC invasion of Taiwan-controlled islands immediately off the PRC coast (Kinmen and Matsu islands) is most likely. Only 10-20 km from PRC, they would be easiest for PRC to invade and hardest for Taiwan to defend. Taiwan-and other powers such as the US and Japan-would have a very difficult decision to make in terms of how to respond, and Beijing will be hoping they give up rather than fight back hard-which would be a massive morale boost for PRC and a huge loss of face for Taiwan and its de facto allies. It would be a rather risky escalation for PRC, but still a lot less risky than actually attempting an invasion of the Taiwan mainland.
Other conceivable options, falling short of a full scale invasion of the Taiwanese mainland, would be a naval blockade of mainland Taiwan or missile strikes against it.
With all the evidence it seems the “threat of Chinese invasion” may also just be the US imperial coalition trying to increase defense spending again. Just like Ukraine and Israel.
The rumors started after covid, when Biden was in office (not a political party that wants to increase defense spending). The rumors are from our guys… you can’t really say where you hear credible rumors but I attest it’s from not easily spooked people.
Meh, I've been hearing "credible rumors" that North Korea would start a war (or, alternatively, collapse) any day soon, pretty much my entire life. Somehow, NK has failed to do either.
I haven't heard anything about NK, I wouldn't worry about Russia, NK, or Iran - that gets played up in the media for reasons. I've only heard things about Taiwan that seem credible.
I feel bad for the Taiwanese, similar to how I felt about Hong Kong. I was hoping we’d offer Hong Kong citizens aslyum (you’d make great US citizens!) but I realize we’d probably also get a few… dissidents caught in our net with that program. I even debated marrying a Hong Kong girl for citizenship but couldn’t find any online, also what a weird offer to make, no one took me up on it (couldn’t find where Hong Kong people posted to advertise even).
Anyhow, I do support strengthening our military. I was younger and thought our military budget was silly but after more reading and more nuance in my worldview, I realize our military is source of consistency - a necessary evil that’s helped to avoid larger wars. Still wish we had better healthcare though.