I think you are crazy putting money into passive index funds.
As for the investors, knowing when to pull out is when they start pushing articles like this. They’re already out and want your capital to go where they are going next.
Your plan for social instability is hodl stocks with increasingly suspect value?
Hm. Mine has been learning how to manage small crops, carpentry and vehicle maintenance.
In the 80s laws were changed to redistribute pensions into Wall Street. I say we do the inverse to Wall Street and expropriate the gains as “fruit of a poisonous tree” with new legislation.
Really? I can think of at least a few cases in the last 100 years where it boomed unexpectedly; world war, energy crisis, recessions, depressions, pandemics…
Someone’s survivorship bias has lead to confirmation they’re ready for anything it seems.
Most Fortune 500s of last generation are gone. Good luck! Count me as one that is not making political choices with yours in mind, and would, in the future, not be honoring some story you have to tell about an unknowable past.
I think you missed the point. I'm not ready for any large change. No one is. What I have done is get myself into a position where I can do what I want to do before there is a change and hold out as long as possible. It's a dampening effect, a parachute. I'll be in the same shit as everyone else, just later.
Well I’ve pretty much pulled it out of everything and bought a house (no mortgage yay) but I rode NVidia, BAE Systems with a safe position held on an actively managed ETF.
I’ve got a huge pension lined up so I’m going to go on holiday a lot basically. I get a lump sum early payment of that soon so I can invest that somewhere more productive.
What if, and this might be just a guess, the hundreds of thousands of people at major investment corporations have thought of this as well and driven the price up so that they are now adequately valued?
Do you know more about the future of these tech companies then the legions of math/physics/economics/CS PhDs paid to investigate the potential of these companies?
If the sales and earnings go up in the long run, and the stocks aren’t super overvalued, then the stocks go up. It doesn’t matter what other people think. All that matters is the performance and valuation.
The price of a share is determined by exactly one thing, how much people are willing to buy them vs. willing to sell them.
If the market believes a certain stock will outperform the average it is free money to buy that stock, so prices will rice exactly to the point at which the market believes the share will not outperform the market at that price.
This is literally basic economics. Google "efficient markets".
You can see the price for yourself though vs the fundamentals and judge whether it’s a fair deal. The market isn’t omniscient and has been mispriced very frequently.
When you're doing long-term investments, it's not a zero-sum game. It is possible - likely even - that you and those hordes of PhDs all come out ahead.
>It is possible - likely even - that you and those hordes of PhDs all come out ahead.
No, it isn't. This is total nonsense, if the PhDs believe a stock is undervalued they bid it up until it is even valued.
The only secret strategy an individual has to outperform the market over a long time is insider training. Everything else means you are betting against the market being efficient, which is risky, to say the least.
As for the investors, knowing when to pull out is when they start pushing articles like this. They’re already out and want your capital to go where they are going next.