FTA: "The next ten-fold increase will be equivalent to multiplying the world’s entire fleet of nuclear reactors by eight in less than the time it typically takes to build just a single one of them."
are there limits to the growth (other than the obvious land limitations which only exists in certain parts and the dark winters for some places)? like certain expensive materials that will get harder to find, or where production is limited and can't easily scale up?
In some senses, everything is finite, but the reason crystalline Si cells have beaten all the other fancier technologies in the market is the raw simplicity. Pure boule silicon, phosphorous and boron dopants in very small quantities, then wiring (silver/copper/aluminium). Then a glass/upvc frame structure.
The low kerf diamond wire saw is also a critical technology for this, but the powdered diamond required can be synthetic.
That isn’t the relevant bit. If decarbonisation is your aim, you build both as quickly as you can.
The fact that “the all-in cost of the electricity they produce promises to be less than half as expensive as the cheapest available today” is what sinks nukes. Burn fossil fuels longer, be judicious in adding gas so batteries have a chance to take hold (we’ve already fucked this up in Europe and America), and accept that while the transition will be dirtier you’ll have a cheaper grid in the end.
That said, just as decarbonisation isn’t the only variable, LCOE isn’t either. Australia will have to maintain a nuclear fleet for military purposes. Taking into account that sunk cost, a civilian fleet’s math might change. (I’m doubtful, but maybe.)
I understand exponential is hard to grasp..