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There is also another area where improvement can be had. As far as I know most A/B testing just looks at the decisions that led to a conversion. But what about those that didn't lead to a conversion? There is information in that too, and it depends on time.

Suppose you pulled decision X for some user two minutes ago, and the user hasn't converted yet. Suppose that you pulled decision Y for some user two weeks ago, and the user hasn't converted yet. Do these two give you the same information? No: the user that got Y is less likely to convert than the user that got X, simply because of the time difference.

What you could do to incorporate this extra information is model the conversion process more explicitly, for example as each lever resulting in a particular exponentially distributed time-to-conversion (and then do Bayesian inference over those parameters).




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