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[flagged] $64B Gamble: SoftBank Arm Plan to Launch AI Chip in 2025 (geekynews.org)
28 points by prestonlau 14 days ago | hide | past | favorite | 33 comments



This whole site reads like LLM-generated garbage. The domain was registered a week ago, yet it has random pages dated 2022: https://www.geekynews.org/0222blog

And… that page is plagiarized from https://www.ihg.com/crowneplaza/hotels/us/en/dublin/dblbl/ho...

This looks to be a mix of stolen/plagiarized copy and LLM-regurgitated crap.


Thanks for the comments. 0222 is just a sequential number that I use, not a date, it basically means I have 222 posts on my site. I created this website using a single PHP file and all the posts are file-based, so pretty generic. Yes, I use LLM to help me write and I will look for ways to improve the writing in future postings. Again, thanks for your suggestions.


https://www.geekynews.org/0222blog says “Updated: December 11 2022 17:52” and is stolen word for word from https://www.ihg.com/crowneplaza/hotels/us/en/dublin/dblbl/ho...

If you want a suggestion, I guess this is one: don’t steal other people’s words and republish them as your own.


Thanks Troy! Glad that you took the time to read one of my older post from 2022. I took some time this morning to rewrite the article and add some more photos I took during the Dublin trip. Thanks again for your suggestions! https://www.geekynews.org/0222blog

Yeah, perhaps better link straight to the source: https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Technology/SoftBank-s-Arm-p...


Yes, this source is the first link I provided. I added some additional information outside the article, hence the link to my site and not to the source.


Serious question, how much money does SoftBank have to keep sinking into things?

My limited visibility to them usually doesn’t involve a lot of good news.


He's backed by Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund, so probably a lot. At least these ventures might produce something real in the future, unlike Neom.


$100 billion Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF). Yeah, lots of venture money to invest!


So, given that I'm already aware that I almost certainly won't understand any answers to this question, can someone give me a idiot level baseline as to exactly what an AI chip is and how it would differ from a cpu/gpu?


The earliest Intel chips (8086) had an extra add-on to do floating point math in hardware, instead of software (8087). There’s a lot of “AI” workloads that include a lot of matrix multiplication, which the Google TPU and the Nvidia tensor cores implement in hardware instead of software.


Ah! ok - that makes sense. Thank you. So it would be a specialised chip with a load of hardcoded functions, kind of like an ASIC?


Exactly, like how a “bitcoin mining” chip would implement the SHA in hardware.

And, CPUs prioritize hiding latency with all sorts of caches, and GPUs prioritize cores and bandwidth to hide latency, so there’s different tradeoffs about memory bandwidth versus latency.


Thank you. Think we've hit the level of my "run away scared at the first sight of machine code" understanding, but I now vaguely understand what's going on.


one example of an "AI" chip might be Google's TPUs. in general it's about the optimization of calculations that are useful in the AI context.


How much money does Son need to lose before he loses such liquidity?

More relevant to the article - I'm highly skeptical that our current architecture - LLMs in particular - will scale to AGI, let alone super intelligence. Humans in particular literally use orders of magnitude less energy and the smartest among us are still more capable. IMHO AGI, let alone superintelligence will require quantum computing getting somewhere, some sort of organic/biological computing or something else not invented yet.

Arm does seem like a natural fit, though. It seems everyone want to make their own chips these days.


imo his bets were really cool wework is the famous one and idk it would have been cool to see commercial real estate replaced with locally owned spaces with remote work becoming a norm but idk i can see how that might be preference

this is such a dumb question but can arm chips even run AI models? it seems like AI on the edge is still 10-15 years away with everyone trying to build a moat


Imo it feels more like 1-2 years away. Smaller 7B, 34B and 70B models are becoming a lot better, with more context length. Faster inference methods are coming out day by day. Better ways to quantize/distill models. All of that on top of chip advancements we saw a couple days ago with M4, Qualcomm/Googles arm chips...

I can't imagine more than 2 years for GPT4 level LLM on edge devices.

The question is, will ppl want GPT4 on the edge when GPT 6 is one request away?


Hehe, this caught my eye:

"According to Precedence Research of Canada, the AI chip market is poised for explosive growth, with projections indicating a rise from $30 billion this year to over $200 billion by 2032.

Another research firm DataHorizzon Research even projected the AI Chip market to be 1,114.3 billion by 2032."

Ok, few here will deny the AI (chip) market is exploding. And CEOs will have visions of datacenters packed with expensive AI chips, extracting value from consumers. But if I were to take a guess:

AI models will be optimized the heck out of. Their architecture is only at the beginning of a long road of innovation (and in particular: simplification - aka race to the bottom). With so many heavyweights getting into the game, competition will be fierce.

Bottom line: yes, AI chips will be everywhere. But they'll also be cheap(-ish). Not unlike current day cpu's, flash, RAM etc.

With that in place, the next revolution: local-running AI models in everybody's hands. Cheap, easy to use & tinker with like mobile/PC apps today.


> idk it would have been cool to see commercial real estate replaced with locally owned spaces

But that's NOT what wework was.


i used it through work so idk how the landlord side of things works

isn't it like AirBnB but for offices? isn't that good? like obviously there are complaints about AirBnB and stuff but it let your average person list their spaces


> isn't it like AirBnB but for offices?

No.


Bruh, SoftBank was not a democratizing force. It was a Saudi funded effort to take over the commercial real estate industry in the United States.


ARM already have some "AI" IP, the Ethos NPU [1]. I work with a team that recently embraced it, replacing a custom in-house solution. I wonder if ARM will scale that up, or if their new AI division will go for something completely new. I wonder if it would be cheaper just to acquire a company like Tenstorrent instead.

[1] https://www.arm.com/products/silicon-ip-cpu/ethos/ethos-u85


How can they not? Did MS spin custom ARM parts with inference acceleration? And Apple has "neural processing" on their parts. And Qualcomm says the elite X is built for AI...

Seems like there are 2 plays here, there is inference training and then there is the end user inference acceleration. I expect they'll avoid the training side in gen1 but make some standard instruction additions that will become available on all ARM parts in the next couple years.


When do you guys think that SoftBank will sell some of its 90% ownership of ARM? Don't they need cash to make these investments?


If SoftBank sells shares owned by SoftBank, it is SoftBank that gets the money, not ARM. If ARM needs money (e.g., to fund the development of AI chips) it can create additional shares (in ARM) and sell those.


The article said SoftBank was going to invest $64 billion in this? After ARM develops the AI chips they are going to spin that department out into a separate company, with SoftBank making the investment in it.

Right now ARM is worth >50% more than SoftBank itself. It seems odd that they are still holding 90%, and also committing so much cash for future investments.


The article says, "Mass production . . . is slated to commence in the fall of 2025. Once a mass-production system is established, the AI chip business could be spun off and placed under SoftBank."

Again, if ARM needs money, ARM needs to sell something ARM owns or to take out a loan. SoftBank's selling something SoftBank owns does not by itself increase ARM's cash even a little. (A company can create new shares in itself at any time, so one of the things ARM can sell is newly-created shares in ARM. As soon as ARM creates new ARM shares, SoftBank's ownership share in ARM goes down from 90% to less than 90% unless SoftBank buys some of those new shares.)


I think it could take some time before Softbank find the next big well-funded buyer for Arm. Referencing another Softbank deal with Boston Dynamics, which was acquired by Softbank in June 2017. Softbank finally sold 80% of its share to Hyundai group in June 2021 (~4 years), also the deal includes some interesting put option that requires Boston Dynamics to go IPO by June 2025, giving Softbank a chance to sell off its remaining 20% stake. Otherwise, Hyundai is required to buy the last 20% from Softbank by June 2026. Who could be the potential buyer of Arm? More details about the Boston Dynamics deal here: https://asianews.network/hyundai-motors-bet-on-robot-dog-bef...

ARM also recently entered a partnership with Untether to collaborate on low power AI inference for automotive


Any idea about the Untether accelerator pricing ?

e.g. tsn200 40W 500TOPS tsn800 300W 2000TOPS

Similar products [1,2] are approx $1-$2/TOPS (this is theoretical 8bit int ops, so multiply by x2-x4)

[1] https://www.axelera.ai/ [2] https://hailo.ai/#discriminative-ai





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