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If we learned anything from covid, it should be that you cannot trust these early mortality numbers because they are biased by the fact that we definitely test people who are dying of a disease but don't test those who are just a little sick.

Covid turned out to be 1% fatal in the early days - which is awful. But the early numbers were ~5-10%



> Covid turned out to be 1% fatal in the early days

Are you sure? Pre vaccine rollout across all ages in USA, I've seen less than .5% IFR, and an order of magnitude less than that if you constrain to ages 0-59.

With the inundation of constant bad news that we were under, you'll still find people thinking covid killed 20% of anyone who caught it, and that will probably last forever.


Treatments improved even prior to vaccine rollout. I didn't say it was 1% fatal for 0-59 cohort.


Ok sure, but even if it's 1/5 as bad it's still very bad.


I think we just have no remote clue what the denominator is though.


True but there are reasons to believe that it's vastly higher than the covid though.


Did it drop to 1% post vaccination or were those figures normalized for that.


Before, initial reporting showed much higher percents because we massively underestimated how many people got sick but were asymptomatic or had so little symptoms they barely noticed.


Yes but I’m wondering if in addition to that did the vaccination have a massive effect on the those numbers.


It had a near 0 or a small rounding from zero effect on overall mortality. Covid rarely, even with co-morbidities, killed people.

Vaccinated people had a significantly lower chance of death but the overall death rate was so tiny it basically doesn't move the needle.


I feel like you’re just opining. Do you know this for a fact/have any sources?




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