A lot of the delay in finding a cure was due to a lack of interest in finding a cure because of social stigma around HIV. You say it took 14 years for the first mitigations after HIV started to be noticed, but we could like move much faster than that if we tried harder.
8-10 years is an average. Some people would start dying earlier, setting the alarm bells ringing, but you have a point that 1981 doesn’t represent the point where the clock starts ticking for global survival. Airborne transmission doesn’t guarantee 100% infection rates, and so there’s likely some extra time built in there as the virus spreads. For sure it would be a crisis much worse than COVID, but I dont think the picture would be as bleak for the species as you paint it.
The HIV retrovirus was first discovered in 1983, and the first antiretroviral drug began trials 2 years later in 1985. That's how long it takes to discover and develop a new class of drugs. HIV researchers said at the time, "we're getting all the money we ask for; there are no delays in funding". But you think the researchers were being held back by something?
8-10 years is an average. Some people would start dying earlier, setting the alarm bells ringing, but you have a point that 1981 doesn’t represent the point where the clock starts ticking for global survival. Airborne transmission doesn’t guarantee 100% infection rates, and so there’s likely some extra time built in there as the virus spreads. For sure it would be a crisis much worse than COVID, but I dont think the picture would be as bleak for the species as you paint it.