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U.S. Housing Takes the Brunt of Fed Policy (bmo.com)
2 points by refaat on April 20, 2024 | hide | past | favorite | 2 comments


Yes rates must remain high to pull out all of the dumb money chasing things and raising inflation. Dumb money treated the economy like a casino it couldn't lose, and they must be hurt. If the dumb money doesn't get hurt, it won't learn the lessons it needs to and will lead to double digit rates like in the 80's. Houses back then were 3x income, they are 5x+ now. That must come down, consumer income can't support it and consumer income is what actually makes the economy flow. Stagflation otherwise at best.

"A struggling housing market suggests restrictive monetary policy is working to cool demand—at least for the 4% of GDP tied to residential construction. But unless the remaining 96% of the economy loses resiliency, as we suspect it will, policy rates could stay high for longer"


Galbraith explains this clearly in "The Economics of Innocent Fraud"




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