Hypothetically, which ticker symbols would you buy put contracts on, at what strike prices, and at what expiration dates? As far as I can tell, a lot of people are betting a lot of money that you are wrong, but actually I think you are right.
The most relevant companies focused on this aren't publicly traded. The ones that are publicly traded like MSFT have way too many other factors affecting their value - not to mention the fact that they'll make money on generative AI that has nothing to do with coding regardless of if an SWE-agent ever works.
Oh well you should hear the hype from CNBC and other places, they are strongly intimating that gen AI will replace SWEs on product development teams. I totally agree it’s not likely, but it’s starting to get baked into asset prices and I want to profit from that misunderstanding.
Conservatively, I think LLMs will replace SWE roles within the next 5-10 years. In that period SWE roles will change drastically, to be more hearding of AI agents.
We can't hope to compete with something that can edit all the files in less than 5 minutes.
If you're not at least trying to plan what your life will look like under these circumstances then you're doing yourself a disservice.
