What I cannot understand is how the crypto market is supposed to be looked at in the context of central bank policy. Stocks are businesses, businesses can be understood in the framing of the economy, and inference can be had as it pertains to stocks (and collections of stocks) regarding that particular business and particular central bank levers. BTC and the like do no have these connections, so why does crypto even care? How should I be thinking about this?
There are narratives like lower interest rates -> more money circulating -> more speculation -> crypto goes up. Or higher interest rates -> crypto goes up as a hedge against inflation. This still leaves you the problem of deciding what model to use.
It’s about liquidity in the financial markets- lower interest rates means people earn less when the money is in a back. So, they are open to speculation outside of normal banking system.
What made it pump this time anyway? It’s been weird because I don’t see a lot of buzz. Last big pump had every airport I visit and the Super Bowl plastered with crypto ads. This one has been virtually silent, which is either a very bullish sign or a sign that it’s manipulated and totally hollow.
ETF news were widely circulated by speculators -> Giancarlo started his printing press -> BTC value went up -> ETF inflows increased -> even more printing by Giancarlo -> more inflows in ETF -> loop continues for now....
Just as an example - the biggest and scariest fund in the world Blackrock had estimated 11 billion dollars inflows in the BTC ETFs. At the same time period, a single dude with the laptop in some non-extradition offshore has printed 12 billions just since the beginning of this year. And all of those printed tokens were immediately used to buy BTC and other volatile tokens. No wonder the the price went insane over past months.
I could tell you, but then I’d be giving my edge away for free. There were 2 main catalysts. These catalysts repeat themselves though this time they both happened at the same time.
My investment buy signals have been on point but my favorite hold duration for any investment is /forever/ if possible. I also invest in almost every asset class because diversification helps you protect your principal. That’s just my view and everyone has their own view.
There's actually three main catalysts. It's kind of funny that you only think there's two :)
Although I don't blame you for not knowing the third one. It's really only known by people with a deep and sophisticated knowledge of the market, of which there aren't many.
There's actually four main catalysts. It's kind of funny that you only think there's three :)
Although I don't blame you for not knowing the fourth one. It's really only known by people with a deep and sophisticated knowledge of the market, of which there aren't many.
