I've been a manager in software development on and off for the last 20 years now, and to echo what many of the more experienced managers here say, interviews at best give you some negative signals, but very rarely anything that I would consider a hugely positive signal. At best, I've quite gotten along with a charismatic candidate, but in my own career, even this has little correlation to people that I liked actually working with.
That being said, I think that a candidate's work history and general questions is good enough. In my experience, it's been painfully obvious everytime someone is bullshitting (or at least I think so, I never hired those people), and I haven't had any experiences where I've hired anyone directly that was a true disaster. Of all the people I've managed, I've had to fire very few, and in the cases that I did it was entirely unacceptable office behavior that led to the dismissal, and it also should not have been a surprise to anyone involved.
That isn't to say everyone worked out perfectly every time, but as a manager, I've been able to address most of those situations (and in the cases where I couldn't, it ended up being some of the very few dismissals). Approaching people who work with me with the benefit of the doubt has broadly been more successful. I address problems as something I want to help people fix, and not as something to be punished. Of the 50 or so people I've directly managed at this point, there's only a handful I wouldn't work with again.
That being said, I think that a candidate's work history and general questions is good enough. In my experience, it's been painfully obvious everytime someone is bullshitting (or at least I think so, I never hired those people), and I haven't had any experiences where I've hired anyone directly that was a true disaster. Of all the people I've managed, I've had to fire very few, and in the cases that I did it was entirely unacceptable office behavior that led to the dismissal, and it also should not have been a surprise to anyone involved.
That isn't to say everyone worked out perfectly every time, but as a manager, I've been able to address most of those situations (and in the cases where I couldn't, it ended up being some of the very few dismissals). Approaching people who work with me with the benefit of the doubt has broadly been more successful. I address problems as something I want to help people fix, and not as something to be punished. Of the 50 or so people I've directly managed at this point, there's only a handful I wouldn't work with again.