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Birthrate in UK falls to record low as campaigners say 'procreation a luxury' (theguardian.com)
43 points by toomuchtodo 3 months ago | hide | past | favorite | 90 comments



As one Brit wrote: "There is nothing except political will stopping us fixing our housing crisis. And doing so is free. All we need to do is get a planning system that allows people, all other things being equal, to build houses on land those people own." https://www.viewfromcullingworth.com/p/there-is-nothing-exce...

The UK should consider making housing and children affordable. The former is particularly easy, because we've had the technology to build multiple housing units on a given parcel of land by stacking the units on top of each other for at least two centuries.


I've been discussing housing a lot with my friend lately, and I think a large part of the problem is simply that democracy in it's current form does not incentivise affordable housing.

Why would those who do own houses want to see their assets depreciate because of increased supply etc.


> Why would those who do own houses want to see their assets depreciate because of increased supply etc.

Which is a perfectly understandable reaction on the surface, but it ignores the long-term impacts of such a situation. Granted, we humans are terrible at thinking about the very long term.

An example I think many of us that live in places like the SF Bay Area, Seattle, Boston..etc have seen is that at some point, high housing prices start damaging other parts of the local economy. Younger people can't afford to move to the area, so the demographics start slumping towards older people; eventually that will lead to the collapse of some pay-it-forward kinds of social services. Businesses have to pay extremely high wages to be able to find workers that want to work there and are able to afford to live within a reasonable distance; Some of this is solvable via automation/remote work, but I don't think you're going to have your mechanic or your cleaners doing telework. A lot of businesses cannot sustain those sorts of wages without severely increasing prices, but then you get people complaining that their local coffee shop has to charge $15 for a cup of plain black coffee.

I think we just haven't yet seen the fallout from the housing affordability problem fully unfold yet. Unless something changes, we'll be seeing more and more effects from this in the coming years.


My small, private catholic high school in a county outside of Los Angeles is shutting down and the reason given is that there are not enough children / families nearby due to the cost of family-sized shelter. This school sits in what was once a family neighborhood, but is now full of empty nester retirees whose adult children cannot afford to live in the neighborhood they grew up in. A public school in the same county recently announced that they're shedding 80 staff/teachers for the same reason.


Future housing site potentially.


I think you basically summed it up by saying that we're terrible at long term thinking.

But back to democracy, why should we care if parties are only elected for 3-5 year terms?

Absolutely it's going to end in disaster, but also, that's just how the system is currently designed.


Why is it democracy? Maybe it's treating housing like an asset?

Why do people treat houses like financial instruments? I think it's a combination of the cost, dual functionality, and devaluation of money. When something costs a significant amount of your labor over your lifetime, you want to make sure it does a little more than keep you dry. If all it does is keep you dry you could live in a tent. If you're looking for a place to invest capital, and you need a place to live, why not have that serve both purposes? And finally, if you want to save your capital, sticking cash on a shoebox or a checking account simply won't do, it will lose purchasing power.

I think these all have the same solution. Houses are expensive because they grow in nominal terms while our labor does not. People who want to invest can't afford that and a home at the same time and so have to use their home for both. And devaluation of money... I think the solution to the housing crisis we are in is simply money that cannot be devalued.


The UK is soon to be a majority-renter country, which will hopefully flip the democratic incentive. Although I guess the end result of that might be permanently oscillating in a narrow band around a 50% homeownership rate.


> The UK is soon to be a majority-renter country

This just means assets are getting more concentrated, effectively increasing inequality. Increased inequality usually means the ones with capital become a greater force in the market, not a weaker one.


Housing can not simultaneously be affordable and a good investment.

So the politicians either keep housing as a good investment (un-affordable) and piss off the younger people who can't afford to buy, or they make housing affordable (bad investment) and piss off the older people who already have houses.

They can't win either way.

I personally think housing should never have been made an "investment", and we should start taking steps to move it away from that. It's a basic human nessessity, and like water or food, everyone should have access, and it shouldn't be something that people make wild profit from.

Go make wild profit from commercial real estate or cars or golf clubs. Not houses people need to live in.

We need to take these steps:

Step 1: Only humans can own houses (no corporations, no business, no hedge funds or whatever else)

Step 2: Limit the number of houses any one human can own, until it's eventually only one per person (a rich couple could still have one each, but not more)

These steps may take 10 years to phase in, but they will make a big difference and be worthwhile.


Does step 1 mean I can't rent my apartment from a company anymore? Seems complicated in that case, I don't want ro own a house, I don't know anything about them and I don't care.

I'd prefer if step 1 was something like "remove government subsidies to people who buy or own real estate". And step 2: Build publicly owned apartments.


> Does step 1 mean I can't rent my apartment from a company anymore?

Why should a company own a residential property for the purposes of renting it out and spinning a profit? I'm saying we must remove that if we want housing to be affordable.

> I'd prefer if step 1 was something like "remove government subsidies to people who buy or own real estate".

This is such a classic misunderstanding of the problem. Government subsidies are not the core problem here, and they have extremely minimal impact on the cost of housing, or the availability of housing for sale.

> And step 2: Build publicly owned apartments.

As we know projects like this take forever and go through literally decades of red tape and bureaucracy. There is a much simpler and faster way that will address the crisis NOW. Let humans who need a house to live in buy the houses that already exist but are being horded by companies and other people whose sole purpose to own the house in the first place is to spin a profit.

We absolutely should not let companies like Nestlé buy all the available drinking water on the planet so they can sell it for high profits, so why the hell are we letting companies (and people) buy all the available housing for the purpose of renting it at a profit?


It would be interesting to apply the existing anti-monopoly rules designed to prevent Nestlé from buying all the water to the companies who are buying all the houses.

Knowing the deep aversion to risk the owners of these companies have I guess it would only take one successful ruling to discourage pretty much the whole market and significantly reset house prices.

Private landlords would take a bit more finagling given that renters also dream of one day owning multiple homes they can rent out but maybe one could sweeten the pot by finding ways to help folk retire more easily?

Implementing this may take winning a national election and a non-trivial amount of social engineering but it's not like it hasn't been done before in other places at other times.

I do like your ideas.


> that renters also dream of one day owning multiple homes they can rent out

This is precisely what needs to stop.

As soon as you have some people buying multiple houses to make a profit from, you make housing un-affordable, and there are not enough to go around because some people have many.


I'm sympathetic to the goal of achieving affordable housing, but by this logic why would we let private companies run anything?

We do because private companies are often good at running things and usually their profit is small compared to the benefits they bring by being competent and professional. This is far from always the case, of course, but in my experience the renting market works well and I'm happy I don't have to deal with the hassle of owning an maintaining part of a building.


Step 1 is good in my opinion, though you might need some carveouts for corporations/trusts as there are sometimes good reasons for those; it should be a whitelist though -- only some very specific circumstances are allowed, like say a property being held in a trust to be passed onto a descendant.

For Step 2 though, what about instead of limiting how many houses you can own (as there will probably be significant legal challenges to that) what about progressively punitive property taxes on additional properties. Every house past the first pays 10% more annual property taxes than the previous one. By the time you're on your 10th house, you owe more than the value of that house every single year in property taxes. That gives those with really large amounts of fuck-you money the chance to still have those sorts of houses, but they operate at a pure loss, and we all get the benefit of that tax money.


> Step 1 is good in my opinion, though you might need some carveouts... like say a property being held in a trust to be passed onto a descendant.

What you're saying makes logical sense, though I think as soon as you make a carveout, it will get exploited.

Many countries around the world have a housing crisis. There is no reason for a house to be held for some decendant to have it later. People need houses to live in NOW, not for them to be tied up waiting for some person to have it sometime in the future.

It's ruthless, but I would just as soon force them to sell it so someone else can use it. Like drinking water or food, it is not reasonable to horde a limited resource which then means others miss out.

> For Step 2, what about progressively punitive property taxes on additional properties. That gives those with really large amounts of fuck-you money the chance to still have those sorts of houses, but they operate at a pure loss, and we all get the benefit of that tax money.

Still doesn't fix the problem.

We don't want more tax money, we want houses for people to live in. A billionaire could still own 100 houses and just run them all at a loss and not care. That's 99 people that now don't have a home because one person is greedy.

> as there will probably be significant legal challenges to that

Well, yes. We're talking about changing the LAW to make this thing explicitly illegal. That means there will be people that won't like it, and interestingly enough it will only be the greedy people who are hording and stopping other people having houses that will be upset. That is what we want. If those people are not upset, we're not doing enough to stop them ruining society for everyone else.


> It's ruthless, but I would just as soon force them to sell it so someone else can use it. Like drinking water or food, it is not reasonable to horde a limited resource which then means others miss out.

The ruthlessness is part of the problem. You need some escape hatches, or you strongly incentivize a lot of people to not go for this. You want to give those on the fence a reason to go to your side of it.

> We don't want more tax money, we want houses for people to live in. A billionaire could still own 100 houses and just run them all at a loss and not care. That's 99 people that now don't have a home because one person is greedy.

Well, I would argue that having to pay 1000% of the houses' value every single year will be beneficial to the rest of us. Yes, sure, it takes some houses off the market, but a $1m house would be generating $10m in tax revenue every single year for the locality. At that sort of return, let them have their 100 houses. We can use the money they pay to fund building more housing or maintaining infrastructure.

I'm willing to let a few dozen billionaires have their vanity homes if it means we get to absolutely fleece them for the privilege.


> or you strongly incentivize a lot of people to not go for this.

By very definition if we do literally anything that makes housing more affordable, we make it less of a good invetment, which means a lot of people will not go for it. We already covered that in my first comment.

Old people that own houses want them to be a good invesment.

Young people that do not own houses want them to be affordable.

Pick one group to make happy.

> We can use the money they pay to fund building more housing

Now you're complicating the issue and getting away from the core issue/problem here. Yes, building more houses would be great, but that is NOT the fundamental problem here.

The fundamental problem that has to be addressed first, is that housing can not simultaneously be a good investment AND be affordable. We MUST fix that first.


> Old people that own houses want them to be a good invesment.

This sounds very simplistic. The majority of homeowners don't care.

You talk a lot about investment but if you ask homeowners if their house is an investment or a home, the majority will say the latter.

For homeowners who want to live in their home (as opposed to house flippers) the value of the house is not relevant. They live there, they plan to continue living there. Having the value go up is not good, it just means paying more taxes for the same home. It's better for the value to remain constant or even go down (same home, less taxes, yay!)

> housing can not simultaneously be a good investment AND be affordable

That's impossible from simple economics. As long as there is inflation (and there will always be inflation, it is a goal of the fed), a durable good cannot go down in price over the long haul (unless the whole city collapses like Detroit, but that's not good for anyone either). What you wish for is impossible.


I think your last objection is either incorrect or at least an uncharitable/incurious read of GP.

What do we mean by "good investment"? When I use that term, I generally mean something close to "someplace I can put my money and have it grow faster than inflation".

In that sense, something that is a "good investment" will tend to get more expensive over time in real dollars (by definition).

If housing is affordable at some moment in time and is a good investment, it will increase in real price until it becomes unaffordable at some moment in time. This argument is the fundamental reason that it's bad economic policy to try to make housing into an investment, but rather to have policies that tend to make it a poor investment, in order to preserve affordability.


> What do we mean by "good investment"?

Housing is not a share of stock, it's a place you live in. So by good investment, I think the criteria is not that it beats any kind of index fund, but simply that it beats renting. Because you have to live somewhere. Either rent or buy.

> to try to make housing into an investment

What does this mean? Who is trying this? What do they do?

As a homeowner who is reasonably (best I can) politically aware and always vote, I have never experienced these forces trying to make housing an investment. It's never been on the ballot here.

> have policies that tend to make it a poor investment

I believe that's impossible. Only way would be a dictatorship that says your house will be taken away from you and demolished every 30 years, or something like that. Would you want to live in such a world?


> So by good investment, I think the criteria is not that it beats any kind of index fund, but simply that it beats renting.

By that logic, a used (rather than new) car is a good investment as well. Since they're a good investment, I guess I should load up on used cars.


A car is an expense. If you need one, it is indeed a much better financial choice to get a used one. But your needs probably don't scale, so you don't need ten cars, just one. You can't have an expense and make it up in volume to become profitable.


Of course not, because finding a more efficient way to meet the needs which require an expenditure of money does not make that expenditure a good investment by the typical usage of that phrase. Same is true in used cars vs new cars and owner-occupied housing vs rented housing.


> Step 1

> Step 2

So you've almost completely eliminated rentals from existing, is that good?

From these discussion, it seems there are people who like and want to rent.


I rented many different places over the years, as I was moving around in my younger days (and certainly didn't have enough money to buy new furniture, let alone an entire house to shelter in).

It seems odd for people to not consider the highly beneficial aspects to some tenants of a useful/viable rental market existing.


“Why would those who do own houses want to see their assets depreciate because of increased supply…”

I’ve been paying more attention to the intractable social problems such as housing as similar to the talk about offshoring of US manufacturing 10+ years ago.

I have family in the mid-west who suffered downward pressure on their wages. Meanwhile the technology industry wages are skyrocketing. Money in the economy, but not for them.

They have turned towards the more radical political factions who promised to help. I witnessed suffering people welcome chaos as a force for change.

I want to know who is benefiting from the housing crisis? I bet they’re entrenched in legal and moral loopholes, and lobbying that reforms will lower your home value and put your ‘investments’ underwater.

That’s what I’m thinking about. And I’m reminded that leaving the EU seemed, as seen from the US, like it would be difficult. But the UK managed to do it, for good or bad.


> The former is particularly easy, because we've had the technology to build multiple housing units on a given parcel of land by stacking the units on top of each other for at least two centuries.

The UK is still scarred from the last time it tried highly dense housing - people think of failed developments such as Hulme Crescents:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1qpf9hogI0

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hulme_Crescents


If you do that you’ll collapse the pyramid scheme economics that is predicated on ever increasing cost of housing. Too many people are too deeply invested in not letting that happen and will instead ride that dysfunction right into the ground - the only way this ends is tragically.


Reducing the "housing crisis" to supply and demand ignores the driving factor in price rise: the finance that allows people to buy 10x their annual gross, and more.

If banks only leant 2x or 4x (like they used to) house prices would quickly depress.

Except that would route the wealth from the middle class upwards, so it's unlikely to ever be allowed to happen.


It is not "particularly easy" to build housing in the UK.

The governing party (Conservative Party) lost a seat it had held for decades (since it was created) in a by-election because Boris Johnson (then PM) wanted to change planning regulations to allow more housing to be built. The government then had to reverse those plans.

This is also the case at the local council level. People will turn out to argue against new housing but people do not turn up to planning meetings to support it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-5747203...

https://www.cityam.com/planning-reforms-govt-u-turns-over-in...


>The UK should consider making housing and children affordable.

This seems like a good idea regardless, but I wonder if making children affordable actually influences people to have more children. Despite being intuitively obvious, it seems like wealth has the opposite effect on procreation. People who have lots of children seem to be motivated mostly by non-economic factors.

Poverty of meaning seems more relevant to this issue. If you don't have an intergenerational identity that you derive deep meaning from, and believe that the future after you die matters more than the present (and near future) where you're alive, then having kids is just brutal suffering for nothing.

It's like trying to convince anarcho-communists to join the military by offering really good salaries. Okay, do that. But also wonder - why don't people believe in your society? Why don't they want to fight for it? None of this is to say we shouldn't pay soldiers well, you see? Because in the past, parents and soldiers lived significantly less secure, comfortable lives, and yet...

Anomie


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsde...

> The total fertility rate (TFR) decreased to 1.49 children per woman in 2022 from 1.55 in 2021; the TFR has been decreasing since 2010.

> Fertility rates decreased overall and in each age group, except for women aged under 20 years where the fertility rate increased.

> There were 605,479 live births in England and Wales in 2022, a 3.1% decrease from 624,828 in 2021 and the lowest number since 2002; the number remains in line with the recent trend of decreasing live births seen before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

> There were 2,433 stillbirths in 2022, a decrease of 164 (6.3%) from 2,597 in 2021.

> The stillbirth rate in 2022 decreased to 4.0 stillbirths per 1,000 total births from 4.1 in 2021; this is higher than the rate seen before the coronavirus pandemic in 2019 (3.9).

> The number of births outside of marriage or civil partnership remains higher than births within marriage or civil partnership in England and Wales; 311,306 live births (51.4%) were registered to women outside of a marriage or civil partnership.


That last stat is pretty terrifying


Marriage is also a luxury good in the current macro.


0.4% stillbirths seems like a little number when you write out the percentage. But a 1 in 250 chance of your child dying before birth (?) seems really high when you say it like that.


> procreation a luxury

The data actually points in the exact opposite direction. People with the least wealth are the most likely to decide to have more kids.


This is because people with greater means expect to be able to provide more/better for their children, which entails much higher costs and puts parents in a considerably more perilous position financially despite aforementioned greater means. Quality food, clothing, daycare, education, medical care, etc is not cheap and only couples sitting on the higher end of the working class salary band can consistently afford all these things while also maintaining financial padding substantial enough to keep the boat righted and afloat should disaster strike.

The above is a big reason why you often see higher-comp working class wait until the last minute (biologically) to have kids. It’s the only way to accumulate anywhere near enough surplus resources to be able to afford a well-cared-for family without risk of a badly timed flurry of bills putting them out on the street.

By contrast, if you’re poor having children doesn’t change a whole lot financially. You’re living on the edge and struggling either way, regardless of your desires.

This is why if it’s a goal of governments to boost birth rates it should be by making raising a family with a high quality of life less burdensome, not by making the population more poor.


I was writing out a similar reply but you covered more or less all of it.

Anecdote: I know a few couples where their financial situation improved when one of the spouses stopped working and started taking care of the kids. The cost of having someone else watching the kids, such as daycare, was more than one of the spouses was bringing in. So they had a choice of being in a more precarious financial situation until the kids could be more independent with both spouses working, or having one spouse give up a long chunk of their career and potentially end up worse off later because they missed on years of advancement.

And of course, if both spouses work a lot, you end up with latchkey kids, which ain't the best situation either.


Having kids would take my household from living very comfortably to struggling but still making too much to get government assistance.

It's basically not even a question which one we're choosing. I'll keep my quality of life, thanks.


Right, another way to put it, couples with nothing to lose are more likely to have to have kids. More well-off couples are worried about how they can have kids, give their kids a good start in life and not have to sacrifice almost everything.


Yes, there is a clear negative correlation between household income and number of children. In the USA, families with an income under $10K have the most kids.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/241530/birth-rate-by-fam...


I noticed that the big jumps in births seem to occur around the boundaries of various poverty level measurements and tax brackets in the US. Hard to establish a direct correlation, but I think it speaks a bit to the fact that if you're really poor, having a lot of kids doesn't really change your situation. If you're a little poor, having many kids still doesn't change the situation unless it makes you really poor. But above that, you start having to really consider how having more kids will affect not only your own financial situation, but how much fewer resources you'll be able to dedicate to each child.

At a certain level of income you lose access to a lot of resources that the government provides that allows a certain minimum level of care for each child. Food stamps, financial aid, tax breaks, all start to fade away as you make more money.


Oh, it's by birthrate. For a brief second, I thought families making less than $10k/year was a large enough cohort to have the largest number of children and I was horrified.


Procreation is a lower dopamine hit than career growth, travel, dating, hobbies, Instagram, flexibility, mobility.

We're always on our phones and the internet. There's no space left for even entertaining the idea of kids. Cellphones took their place. And capitalism filled the gaps to occupy us with entertainment for any spare moment. (Who knew we needed "escape rooms"?)

Kids were perfect for the farm and nomadic societies. They were essentially free labor to help around the house. They don't fit very well into today's society, where you might just go on a random trip, go partying late at night, or spend your income on your hobby / pet project.

I'm saying all of this both tongue-in-cheek (kids are the future and we need them), but also in earnest. I truly think this is a big driver or component of why people aren't having kids.

I think this, more than cost burden, is the reason. We're too into our own thing to let a young infant have space.


A better way to say it is opportunity cost of children is higher now. It used to be your alternative was simple stuff like socializing or doing some basic hobby. Now you have maximally addictive entertainment at your fingertips, not to mention that people are wealthier so they can travel and do other activities.

It’s also the reason why wealthier people have fewer kids.


Has japan had smart phones since 1970?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPDYNTFRTINJPN


Japan was a technological leader in those years; while not smart phones per se, they had plenty of entertainment technology ahead of the rest of the world.


they had plenty of entertainment technology ahead of the rest of the world.

What did they have that the rest of the world didn't?


A bigger bowling boom than elsewhere. The biggest version of the arcade golden age in the world. The Walkman. The first laptops. A stronger service/entertainment culture.

Or maybe other countries had a similar fertility decline that was masked by other factors. Did you remember to adjust out the effects of immigration (not just immediately, but in subsequent generations)?


To be clear, you think that the consistent country wide drop in japanese fertility for the last 50 years was due to bowling alleys, arcades the walkman and the first laptops?

Or maybe other countries had a similar fertility decline that was masked by other factors

Or maybe they didn't. You are throwing out nonsensical guesses, I linked you real information.

Did you remember to adjust out the effects of immigration (not just immediately, but in subsequent generations)?

What are you talking about, I linked you a graph of long term statistics. If you have questions about it, click on the link and read.


> you think that the consistent country wide drop in japanese fertility for the last 50 years was due to bowling alleys, arcades the walkman and the first laptops?

I think it may have been due to having great entertainment options, of which the things I mentioned are indicative examples.

> I linked you real information.

No, you linked a Japan-specific graph and then asked "What did they have that the rest of the world didn't?". Which is obviously a meaningless question without knowing what you're comparing to.


No, you linked a Japan-specific graph

That's called real information. You are throwing out nonsense with nothing to back it up.

"What did they have that the rest of the world didn't?"

And you thought that bowling and cassette tapes for some reason dropped fertility rates in japan.

Which is obviously a meaningless question without knowing what you're comparing to.

What comparison do you need and why didn't you do it yourself? Japan's fertility as a country started dropping in the 70s and continued on a steady decline. Why did that happen? Your answer? Bowling.


<Kids were perfect for the farm and nomadic societies. They were essentially free labor to help around the house.>

They also mow the yard and help with heavy lifting!

All kidding aside, children are also useful/needed in the later life phase of their parents. I watched my wife visit her Mother everyday for the last ten years of her life.


[flagged]


There are a lot of people that are now 100% content with streaming services and doom scrolling and don't want to have kids. In the more distant past, it was either a necessity, enforced through social constructs, or was probably seen as a lot more interesting back when entertainment wasn't so all encompassing.

During holidays I'll go visit a massive family (my wife's) and she has a bazillion cousins and brothers and almost nobody is getting married. The few that are have no interest in children and it isn't a housing or money problem. They'd just rather live a different lifestyle. I get it for sure, but it's also a bit shocking to see a forecast of how quickly the birthrate is going to drop.


Who on their phones all day is meeting new people and settling down with them?


This whole thread of speculation is pretty crap.

The history of speculating why poor people have so many kids is extremely crappy.

Let's just stick with what the boffins have come up with, yes?


> Let's just stick with what the boffins have come up with, yes?

Speaking for myself and my friends (to whom I have talked about this matter), we have too much going on right now.

Life is full.


It probably makes sense to someone who lives their life 100% online.


This phenomena is not limited to the UK, or even other countries receiving publicity for the same thing, like South Korea, Italy, and Japan. With some uncertainty, and averages worldlwide, it could lead to lower population by the century's end.

https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/9...


I've often heard it said online that the high cost of things (housing, mainly, among others) is why people don't have kids, but I have come to the conclusion that people won't have kids even if their material needs are satiated. Think of all the programs that the government has launched in Scandinavian countries (even so far as to run ads encouraging having kids) and people still don't have children. I think it's due to being too comfortable not having to take care of kids, living the double income no kids lifestyle with a partner, that's certainly my reason for not wanting to have them. Call it selfish if you want, but that doesn't change the underlying statistics and reasoning of many people who can afford to have but still don't have children.


Why do we need to maintain the population? The UK is quite crowded already.

It seems to me the environment would be much better-off with fewer people. And also people would be better off with fewer people, with more resources to invest in each life.

It seems like maintaining financial growth is the real concern behind this 'news'.


Working adults' taxes pay for retirees' healthcare and social safety net.

Medical advances increase the number of older people. Lower fertility reduces the number of working age adults.


Populations cannot increase forever. Social safety nets structured like pyramids aren't going to scale.

A sustainable future means settling for a stable population and retiring with less than infinite growth could provide.


Sounds like a pyramid scheme when you put it that way


And you know what's the endgame of a pyramid scheme: there are simply mathematically not enough new players to keep the pyramid running.


I'd rather live in a world with 100 million humans, and computers helping to run this world.

Most of the problems (wars, food supply issue, pandemics, climate change, surveillance) would be easier to tackle.

China and India have a genuine space (and weather!) issue to deal with, they cannot stay like that eternally, so it may eventually lead to conflicts.

We may see the world self-regulate anyway. Corona was probably just a trial for the next big depopulation event (either violent, or passive like lack of fertility) :|


> I'd rather live in a world with 100 million humans, and computers helping to run this world.

Easy to say when you've positioned yourself as one of the 100m that gets to live - and with 7 billion people's worth of man-made resources to be shared round.

I think the journey towards it would be catastrophic under capitalism (and any transition away from capitalism could also be catastrophic, at least in the short term).


> Easy to say when you've positioned yourself as one of the 100m that gets to live

"gets to live" is not the correct way to put it. If birth rates keep going lower, everyone gets to live their life just fine.

But over the long haul, population goes down as people die of old age and younger generations are smaller.


fewer people means no retirement plans in their current shape, lower GDP and less innovation in general. but we are going there anyway, there is very little we can do to reverse it.


This argument has never held water. Population will keep increasing, the economy can't afford anything else.

A lack of procreation doesn't turn a country green. It turns it brown.


We’ll see what happens with Japan long before Western countries hit the shit storm.


Italy is in a worse situation than Japan if I recall correctly


In these cases I always remember the song "Dégénérations" [1] by Mes Aïeux [2].

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AW-6dQvQrFk&list=RDMMAW-6dQv...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mes_A%C3%AFeux


> These will be the people looking after us in our old age

By choice, some of us wants to go to sleep before we reach that situation. Need no need to be looked after. We want the right to death with dignity.


As always with western countries the political class will simply fill the void with more and more immigrants rather than fixing the core issues like living costs or crime.

The people are there to serve the economy. Immigrants are treated better than the natives. Houses are casinos rather than homes. The old are more important than young. Sameness is valued over variety.

Those questioning it are labeled 'far' or 'extreme' by the same media whom just happen to benefit from the economic growth created by the status quo. Get back in your Overton box. Jeffery needs a new rocket and there is a new dance meme on TikTok.


I don't know about the 'always' thing... In the US, the Republicans have been solidly anti-immagramt for a while now. I think a few other countries have had a conservative anti-immagrant platform as well.

I think it's a fairly foolish and self-defeating position in the long term, but I'm not the one making those decisions.


Hah. Anti-immigration but more or less on a path to ban abortions. I'll let you do the math and find the sinister reason behind why they are forcing the poorest people to reproduce.


"Anti-immigration" politics is a red-herring. Look at the UK post brexit. Immigration went up, by more than mainland europe. (And before the invasion of Ukraine)

Even for the far-right political movements, immigration is too favourable to actually stop. They're populists who sell cheap lies rather than actual solutions. Trump's not going to deprive his rural farmer voting blocs nor his big corporate sponsors of their cheap labour. Europe's far-right is even more closely allied with farmers right now.

The populists just virtue signal a bunch without doing anything about the problem.


The actual core issue is the cost of housing: https://www.viewfromcullingworth.com/p/there-is-nothing-exce...


There is already child benefits. Most of the natives you speak of are just lazy because they live in a low pressure environment.


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Don't know about you but every top university I went to had tons of people from overseas. The opposite is true for mid-tier universities. I wonder why that is...


> Immigrants are treated better than the natives.

This is a very bold statement to just put out there with zero explanation.


Nah. This does not work if the conditions the immigrants get are shittier than in their country of origin. Why would anyone move?


money means more to the power holders than anything else. remember that and you'll instantly understand the world.


Sure countries use immigration as a way to quickly fill labor gaps in a country. Why wouldn't they take advantage of a population that costs essentially zero and becomes a tax paying member of society as soon as they're employed?

> Immigrants are treated better than the natives

This is where economic reality meets far-right conspiracy. You're going to have to substantiate that claim.


> This is where economic reality meets far-right conspiracy. You're going to have to substantiate that claim.

This person is a nationalist. Their goal is to spread hate about immigrants.


Clearly. Wanted to give them an opportunity to discredit themselves further.


I'm struggling to count the ways you're contradicting yourself.

>As always with western countries the political class will simply fill the void with more and more immigrants rather than fixing the core issues like living costs or crime.

Righttt... because politicians' primary goal is to cater to the people that can't actually vote for them or keep them in power.

>The people are there to serve the economy. Immigrants are treated better than the natives. Houses are casinos rather than homes.

In what country are "immigrants treated better than natives" - and how so? I can't think of a single country where immigrants have more rights, or access to more social programs than citizens.

>The old are more important than young.

Sure, because as a percentage of the population, they vote in higher numbers. Of course they're generally more likely to be against immigration so your mental gymnastics are straining hard.

>Sameness is valued over variety.

So they simultaneously want to fill the country with immigrants from myriad cultures, while making everything the same? I can think of a lot of ways to make everything in your country the same - preferring immigrants from other cultures over citizens that probably have at least some shared culture would not make the top 100 of that list.

>Those questioning it are labeled 'far' or 'extreme' by the same media whom just happen to benefit from the economic growth created by the status quo. Get back in your Overton box. Jeffery needs a new rocket and there is a new dance meme on TikTok.

Well right, because they're racist tropes, and as evidenced by your post tend to contradict themselves unironically. The fact you think politicians are simultaneously catering to old people and immigrants is... interesting to say the least.




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