Ironically the Vanguard group's branding - at least as far as I've met it - has been as the company who specifically don't have opinions about markets. I'm sure they have a large advisory group, but they're famous for the index funds.
I think they're obviously wrong. The long term interest rate is clearly trending to 0% [0] (and someone is lying about what "real" means, that interest rate wants me to believe my gold bar is getting bigger every year. I have a tape measure handy, it is not getting bigger in real terms [1]) and the US strategy is [see a crisis -> print some money], which is not a political environment that will tolerate borrowers getting a fair deal for any length of time. Something huge (ie, a financial crisis bigger than anything in the 1980 -> 2024 time period) will need to happen to buck the political zeitgeist.
> Something huge […] will need to happen to buck the political zeitgeist.
The only thing that can do the job is the government making budget surpluses every OK economic year in order to repay for the debt from the crisis.
But:
- it's unrealistic to do it by reducing spendings because it would tank the economy very badly.
- it's not very realistic to rise tax rates either because:
1. If you rise them on the laypeople, you tank the economy as well.
2. If you rise them on businesses, they move away from the US or suffer from foreign competition.
3. And given the plutocratic nature of the US democracy, there's no way I imagine the government raising taxes on the oligarchs.
Anyway, the most realistic option would be 2., but it would need to keep raising tariffs and trade barriers in order to overcome the mobility and the foreign competition effects. But it's already triggering a come back of protectionism at a global scale, which is also likely to tank the economy, so it's not entirely trivial to do (and it also hurts the interests of a significant fraction of the oligarchy).
I think they're obviously wrong. The long term interest rate is clearly trending to 0% [0] (and someone is lying about what "real" means, that interest rate wants me to believe my gold bar is getting bigger every year. I have a tape measure handy, it is not getting bigger in real terms [1]) and the US strategy is [see a crisis -> print some money], which is not a political environment that will tolerate borrowers getting a fair deal for any length of time. Something huge (ie, a financial crisis bigger than anything in the 1980 -> 2024 time period) will need to happen to buck the political zeitgeist.
[0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y
[1] Or we could use M2 as the adjustor where we get more realistic price movements... https://ingoldwetrust.report/chart-m2-gold-ratio/?lang=en