It is not like there is a cultural pressure to keep the pay for a programmer down, because that would break down quickly if there are a lot of positions not being filled.
I somehow doubt that the value earned by hiring a programmer is much less than elsewhere.
So really that leaves only some other operator that is messing up smooth market operations, and that is the extra costs in hiring.
Your last point is the strongest. Would you hiring a programmer if it was impossible to fire them. If you were a programmer that knew he couldn't be fired, what would your output look like.
The market is notoriously inefficient in hiring/working because companies work so hard to keep prices (salaries) hidden so one has a really difficult time knowing what the market value of a given skill is.
It is not like there is a cultural pressure to keep the pay for a programmer down, because that would break down quickly if there are a lot of positions not being filled.
I somehow doubt that the value earned by hiring a programmer is much less than elsewhere.
So really that leaves only some other operator that is messing up smooth market operations, and that is the extra costs in hiring.
Your last point is the strongest. Would you hiring a programmer if it was impossible to fire them. If you were a programmer that knew he couldn't be fired, what would your output look like.