After a couple skims through the article - I get the impression that the author's value system and worldview are nice, simple constructions of clockwork and pigeonholes. And that he really can't resist his urges to project those onto the Russians.
What if, instead of his "boolean checkboxes" way of analyzing things, the Russians saw the world as multi-dimensional, with shades of gray everywhere? And viewed "Styled as Covert" and "Actually Kept Secret" as just a couple of the level-control faders on their big mixing board? And worse - they didn't care all that much about either being understood by the Western intelligence establishment, or being assumed to be understood by that establishment.
Before even reading I array intuited the main reason: they do not care at all. Paper calls it indifference. Sure, incompetence is a factor, but then simply revisit their root attitude of no-fucks-given.
Time and time again has shown they will behave brazenly, to almost comically absurd levels. It's all wrapped up in a thick mire of gradually disenfranchising people, demoralizing them, the slow grind, the constant cyclical aura of "is this 4d chess" or "are they just trolling us?".
A lot of “covert” actions are warnings and power-plays. They aren’t really meant to be secret, just deniable in that “I’m shocked, shocked! that some private individuals with no official status have taken this action for the good of our nation” sort of way.
We shouldn't be surprised. Propagating one's own model of thinking to everyone is our common trait. Absurdly false belief that "workers and peasants" of Finland will turn their arms against their capitalist exploiters in 1940 wasn't much different from belief that people of Afghanistan were waiting for Americans to come and help them build freedom and democracy.
Everyone falls for that. We always believe that everyone thinks like ourselves. If Russians never experienced democracy they don't believe it's a real thing. If Russians respect and actually love brute force they believe that everyone else does, too, so they actually think that they increase their popularity in the West by demonstrating blatant ignorance of international norms and overt, unrestrained violence.
Title correction: Why are random events so readily attributed to Russia?
Remember the 6000 New York Times articles about “collusion” in that same timeframe, which helped turn a bozo into a folk hero
> in its first three years, 2015–2018, it ‘catalogued, analysed, and put the spotlight on over 4,500 examples of disinformation by the Russian Federation’
What if, instead of his "boolean checkboxes" way of analyzing things, the Russians saw the world as multi-dimensional, with shades of gray everywhere? And viewed "Styled as Covert" and "Actually Kept Secret" as just a couple of the level-control faders on their big mixing board? And worse - they didn't care all that much about either being understood by the Western intelligence establishment, or being assumed to be understood by that establishment.