I think the Facebook valuation is a bit much at $4.5 to $7 billion.
My reasons:
+Web startups should not be valued over 10 yrs, this is demonstrably much longer than most significant startups last Also consumers in the web world have short attention spans.
+Esitmated Prime page views aren't validated
+Prime CPM growth rate increases 400+% over 10 years, which even after adjusting for inflation seems to be a strech.
I think facebook will lose value over the coming year. If they wish to sell, they must do it soon. This is because the industries understanding of the valuations for acquisitions such as DoubleClick will correct. The multiples are too high.
My reasons:
+Web startups should not be valued over 10 yrs, this is demonstrably much longer than most significant startups last Also consumers in the web world have short attention spans.
+Esitmated Prime page views aren't validated
+Prime CPM growth rate increases 400+% over 10 years, which even after adjusting for inflation seems to be a strech.
I think facebook will lose value over the coming year. If they wish to sell, they must do it soon. This is because the industries understanding of the valuations for acquisitions such as DoubleClick will correct. The multiples are too high.