If like OP you think that the work Open AI is doing is going to have a such a large effect on society that private entities should not be able to work on it then the question of America Vs China is indeed one of the most important questions.
"That's what some people assert, but there's no solid reason to assume that's true. We don't even know if it's in the realm of the possible"
True, but there are a lot of very smart people getting handed huge amounts of money by other very smart people that seem to think it is.
> then the question of America Vs China is indeed one of the most important questions.
I don't actually take the stance as you stated it -- but if I did, I'd say that would mean it doesn't matter at all what nation develops it because the consequences would be disastrous no matter who did it first.
> a lot of very smart people getting handed huge amounts of money by other very smart people that seem to think it is.
Ignoring whether or not the people funding this are "very smart" (I don't know if they are or not), there are also a lot of very smart people who think that it isn't. Just the fact that some very smart people think such a thing isn't evidence that they're correct.
You also have to keep in mind that the more intelligent a person is, the easier it is for them to convince themselves of pretty much anything.
> We don't even know if it's in the realm of the possible.
We know it's possible, because you typed it. Unless you believe in the metaphysical, then it is proven possible, with physical systems. The question is then, can the fundamental aspects of intelligence, in the biological systems, be practically emulated in other systems?
Well, OK. I'll refine my statement to "we don't even know if it's possible for us to do within any given timeline". Especially not a timeline as short as the next few lifetimes.
That's what some people assert, but there's no solid reason to assume that's true. We don't even know if it's in the realm of the possible.
> The only open question is do we want the company that creates AGI to be American or Chinese?
That's far from the only question. I don't even think it's in the top 10 of the list of important questions.