Another approach: the adult human brain has 100 (+- 20) billion or 10^11 neurons. Each neuron has 10^3 synapses and each synapse has 10^2 ion channels, amounts to 10^16 total channels. Assuming 10 parameters is enough to represent each channel (unlikely), that's about 10^17 (100 quadrillion) total parameters. Compare that to GPT4 which is rumored to be about 1.7*10^12 parameters on 8x 80GB A100s.
log(10^17/10^12)/log(2) = 16.61 so assuming 1.5 years per doubling, that'll be another 24.9 years - December, 2048 - before 8x X100s can simulate the human brain.
log(10^17/10^12)/log(2) = 16.61 so assuming 1.5 years per doubling, that'll be another 24.9 years - December, 2048 - before 8x X100s can simulate the human brain.