The ideas put forward aren't well supported by relevant facts.
Humanity's population won't necessarily have a single peak.
And the author selectively calls out adaptations that are being thwarted by advances in modern medicine and science without acknowledging the possibility that we are adapting in other ways that aren't yet detectable; or at least not by a political philosophy instructor.
They aren't even new. Go back a hundred years and Nazis were spouting the same bullshit about impending genetic and population decline.
Given modern technology such as IVF with embryo selection based on genetic sequencing, the concerns that genetic decline is unstoppable are unfounded. The biggest problem is that the people interested in these things are mostly tactless and stupid. The lesswrong crowd really loves building polygenic scores for IQ. They don't realize that overzealous genetic selection has similar problems as nuclear power plants. A single accident can ruin genetics research for everyone. The goal should be giving birth to healthy children, not creating superhumans.
> According to UN population estimates, humans will reach their maximum population in 2086 at 10.4 billion humans. This number, large as it is, is still lower than what scientists had predicted earlier.
Take the UN simulation and observe that the parameter "Number of children per woman" is expected to decrease rapidly.
What does it tell to us? We know that fertility rate of the population is highly dependent of the education level and by the access to primary necessities like clean water and well, waste disposal.
Can we expect this to be provided for Africa? Can we trust these UN models to be correct?
I hope so.
If you want to look what does it mean when these models are not correct then chose Free simulation - now the population growth is Africa is not caped at 4 billion anymore.
Unmanaged population growth paired with poor human development in Africa is something that really angers me. It is misery producing even more misery at high pace. Wealth accumulation is not possible as it is eaten away by the ever growing population. Normal aid is not productive as the ever growing population is constantly diminishing the result of the aid and the need for the aid is ever growing.
Let's take a simple example: COVID-19 vaccines. Providing vaccination for 500 million people (when we assume moderate growth from 220 million in 1950) would have been incredibly simpler than providing vaccination for 1.5 billion people.
Oh the hubris of those poor, undeveloped savages who are so far away and unlike me who are so sophisticated! How dare they procreate without bound or limit! They must be made to stop and brought to heel!
It has been argued very convincingly that the only mechanism that has created actual population level wealth increase in the world has been birth control. So you claim that it is wrong to wish the best for the African nations and hope that they could find a way out of the poverty trap faster? You don't want them to prosper?
Current population increase in Africa simply is not sustainable. For example at the moment African population increases in faster rate than their ability to increase the food production. This has made them dependent on the food imports.
Of course perhaps you prefer endless mass of cheap slaves instead of self sustaining wealthy Africans.
The... best? Poverty... trap? You know, there are some cultures which value loving relationships and family over and above material things and wealth. I know many Africans who consider themselves rich when they have many children, nice in-law relations, good standing and respect in their village, because at the end of the day, it matters not how many films you can stream on Netflix, but the warm conversation around a dinner table and the mutual support which can only come from a community of trust.
For a Christian, a spirit of poverty is one that allows us to find joy in our circumstances, even if we lack material comforts. There will always be suffering in this life, and the "pursuit of happiness" is a fool's errand unless we commit to happiness in the here-and-now without pursuing some materialist, consumerist, individualist "American Dream". There is dignity in work and there is dignity in the poor. Perhaps you regard them as benighted savages because they smile, sing and dance, unfazed by their ragged clothing and dirt floors. Perhaps they have been granted more wisdom than your ignorant attachment to wealth and created things.
If you want to fuck all that up and shove money in their pockets instead, I don't know what to tell you. And regarding food importation, nothing pisses off local farmers and herdsmen more than wealthy do-gooders who dump "charitable" crap food onto the doorsteps of their customers. The West has absolutely destroyed agrarian economies by shipping food off just to screw local producers. And it goes beyond food--textile and clothing manufacturers would also like a quiet word.
Perhaps they are good individually but as a whole the whole continent not so. It is not about West shipping food, it is about African nations buying food because they simply lack enough local supplies.
Humanity's population won't necessarily have a single peak.
And the author selectively calls out adaptations that are being thwarted by advances in modern medicine and science without acknowledging the possibility that we are adapting in other ways that aren't yet detectable; or at least not by a political philosophy instructor.