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Back during the early Cold War, some Americans were concerned that the Soviet model would out compete democracy and free market capitalism. They might beat us without even fighting. Later we found out that it was all a facade. Their purported successes were all lies and failures. The entire society was rotten to the core and eventually the internal contradictions ripped it apart.

China is not to be taken lightly. They are a legitimate threat and strategic competitor. But they also face enormous problems due to unfavorable geography, lack of key natural resources, corruption, malinvestment, and demographic collapse. These problems are not getting better, and I won't be surprised if there's a violent civil war in 30 years (as has happened many times over millennia of Chinese history).




"China is not to be taken lightly."

Yet that's exactly what you're doing.

"But they also face enormous problems due to unfavorable geography, lack of key natural resources, corruption, malinvestment, and demographic collapse."

None of these things are true. Stop consuming intellectual droppings from the likes of Peter Zeihan.

China has a monopoly on rare earths and more importantly, processing technologies, which are the key resources for a technological society. It's rapidly transitioning its grid and transportation systems to run on renewable power. Over the next decade it will do in hydrogen what it did in solar and wind. That will give it total self sufficiency in critical inputs like ammonia and synthetic fuels.

Corruption was an issue before Xi's anti-corruption drive. Corruption was wonderful when it served American interests, when the CIA was paying out the bribes. Now that the CIA networks have been torn up and the corrupt officials put behind bars and executed, the US cries that China is "increasingly authoritarian." Well, the louder the US cries, the more I know China is on the right path.

Malinvestment? That's rich coming from an OnlyFans economy like America. You people can't even make enough artillery shells to send to Ukraine. You're being outbuilt by an order of magnitude by Russia, a country you mock as having an economy the size of Texas. Your GDP is entirely hot air and all you make is noise.

As for demography, that's the last thin reed you have to hang all your ill wishes toward China on. Unfortunately for you, that's changing for the better. The Chinese government has shifted from an anti-natal/neutral policy to a pro-natal one and will introduce a raft of policies to boost birth rates. Before you even think that that never works, it does work. It worked in Hungary and it will work far better in China, where the Chinese government can pull many more levers than the Hungarian government can.

Incidentally, the biggest block to Chinese people marrying and having children is the high cost of housing. Guess what the deflating housing bubble is going to do for that.

"These problems are not getting better, and I won't be surprised if there's a violent civil war in 30 years"

I've just demonstrated that they either don't exist or they are getting much better. If you want to look for violent civil wars, look to the US. You won't have to wait 30 years.

"as has happened many times over millennia of Chinese history"

China has millennia of history. Let's see the US make it to 300 years.


I believe your analysis conflates economic systems with political ones. The U.S. doesn’t have an entirely free market capitalism system (see: farm subsidies which fed into supermarket propaganda) and China doesn’t have an entirely planned economy.

As far as political systems go, the collapse of China seems to always be around the corner. But in reality, the U.S. seems to be much closer to civil war. No faction stormed the Capitol in Beijing when Xi was appointed. And even if our political system is not overthrown, it may die the death of 1000 cuts. How much can you honestly say Congress represents the People’s vs lobbyists (professional bribery) and PAC interests?


Context is very important here. Xi was appointed not elected by people. He got almost three thousand votes and one against. There is no election so it can't create friction. Like in eastern European nations where there was one party system and elections were virtually non existent. Friction there is not generated by politicians but usually from poverty or similar systematic issue. As long as Chinese population would perceive themself as improving and even rich system is safe. Democracies works very differently.


I mean, then why did we spend so much money and kill so many people destabilizing half the world?

If the model was so rotten to begin with, that is.

How many people did the west directly and indirectly kill in the 20th century?


For the same reason we still do: it’s incredibly profitable for the people who make weapons.




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