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If I tell you someone will break into your house sometime in the future...maybe tomorrow, maybe 5 years from now, and actually maybe never...how would you change your behavior?

There was some intelligence about a potential threat, but hardly anything specific that they could easily respond to. Coupled with the fact that Hamas has their own counterintelligence laying out deceptions in the months leading up to the attack.

I guess Israel could have just stationed a few battalions over the full length of the border....forever.




Israel absolutely had incredibly specific intel [1] of the attack plans a year in advance of the attack, yet chose to do nothing out of arrogance

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/middleeast/israel-h...


(alternate account for oh_sigh here, apparently posting 3 times 90 minutes ago means I can't post anymore today)

Yes, they had intel about the attack method, but not the dates, or even if it was real or aspirational.

This goes to my question about the person break into your home... What changes or adjustments could Israel have taken based on the intel? Like I said, maybe they could just place a bunch of battalions along the entire border, but then maybe Hamas would just lay low until they were gone.


For all we know they allowed it to happen so they'd have an excuse to retaliate. See also: basically every 9/11 conspiracy theory.


For all we know you're a lizard person trying to push humanity into a nuclear Holocaust so the lizard people can take earth over.




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