You cannot apply that analysis because the deaths were not randomly sampled. They were hyper concentrated on certain demographics that also largely separate social networks.
I would guess Most people did not lose someone close (for conservative definitions of “close”). Given that you did lose someone close, you probably lost more than one.
People in my family tend to die younger for other reasons (cancer, MS), so not many were old enough to be in that category of people who were most vulnerable to it. On the other hand, I knew people with lots of elderly relatives, and they knew and were close to more than a few who died.
I would guess Most people did not lose someone close (for conservative definitions of “close”). Given that you did lose someone close, you probably lost more than one.