Even if this were a given (and it isn’t), I think it’s unlikely Tesla robotaxis capture the transport market like that.
There’s a lot of cars to replace. Capturing 10% of yearly car sales, worldwide, is already a very tall order.
Capturing 10% of all cars on the road would require this level of gargantuan sales for many years, and that’s just so 10% of cars in the world are your brand, not so 10% of rides are on cars owned by the fraction of people who bought your brand and decided to let it drive strangers while they’re not using it.
Moreover, beyond the safety concerns there’s policy concerns— knowing how to safely drive in Indonesia doesn’t mean being allowed to drive in Indonesia. Resource constraints— where is all the lithium going to come from, and how will the people around the world feel about this?
And there already are alternatives beyond the car industry. Public transit, for example. Demand for not driving or not owning a car can’t only be safely fulfilled with robotaxis.
I said 10% of rides will be robotaxis and 10% of that will be in Teslas.
That is 1% of all rides taking place in Tesla robotaxis, not 10%.
Also it is about rides, not about cars. Less than 1% of cars being Tesla robotaxis is enough for 1% of rides to be Tesla robotaxi rides. A robotaxi will do multiple times more rides per day that the average car.
There’s a lot of cars to replace. Capturing 10% of yearly car sales, worldwide, is already a very tall order.
Capturing 10% of all cars on the road would require this level of gargantuan sales for many years, and that’s just so 10% of cars in the world are your brand, not so 10% of rides are on cars owned by the fraction of people who bought your brand and decided to let it drive strangers while they’re not using it.
Moreover, beyond the safety concerns there’s policy concerns— knowing how to safely drive in Indonesia doesn’t mean being allowed to drive in Indonesia. Resource constraints— where is all the lithium going to come from, and how will the people around the world feel about this?
And there already are alternatives beyond the car industry. Public transit, for example. Demand for not driving or not owning a car can’t only be safely fulfilled with robotaxis.