It's also worth noting that this electoral system is highly proportional, so the PVV have fewer than a quarter of the seats. How easy will it be for the PVV to form a government with so few seats?
> Only 23% voted for him.
That's 23% of votes cast. Strictly speaking, considering the 78% turnout, isn't it the case that only 18% of eligible voters voted for PVV? (And even whether those are votes for Wilders himself might be arguable.)
> How easy will it be for the PVV to form a government with so few seats?
On a scale of 1 to 10? Belgium.
The problem isn't that he has only a ~quarter of the seats (last time a party had a similar lead was in 2012), it's that the results are too scattered. There are no realistic combinations.
PVV + VVD + NSC is the only possible combination with PVV, and I'm not seeing NSC go for that (for a number of reasons: ideological differences with PVV, history with VVD, probably not a good idea to participate in a coalition as a brand new party).
The other alternative is Labour/green + VVD + NSC + D66. It's similar to the purple coalitions of then 90s, but things changed quite a bit since then so I'm not sure how realistic that is, and it's probably going to end up disastrous for Labour (and D66) to be in a cabinet with a right-wing and centre-right party (as it has been in the past).
I don't yet see VVD governing with PVV either. They'll enter into talks, but let it crash and burn over something - a government with the PVV will probably be too volatile. And I doubt the PVV will go for another stint without their own ministers.
The other alternative seems palatable for all participants, and when it's the only remaining option, suddenly a lot is possible - especially for the parties who've already dropped out of a previous negotiation. But yes, Labour/Green/D66 will be suffering afterwards.
Yes, I think everyone is a bit wary of Wilders, but it's also hard to deny PVV is the largest party – you can't "just" ignore then either. VVD is probably at least willing to be convinced it can work.
On immigration VVD is closer to the PVV that they'd like to admit, but PVV is also pretty left-wing on a lot of other issues – that's probably going to be a harder problem. The reason Rutte 1 failed was the budget, not immigration.
